Tata Motors Q2 cons PAT seen at Rs 170 cr

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Tata Motors is set to announce its second quarter FY10 results. According to CNBC-TV18's estimates, it is expected to report consolidated PAT (profit after tax) of Rs 170 crore as against net loss of Rs 329 crore, on quarter-on-quarter basis (QoQ).

 

Its adjusted loss is seen at Rs 200 crore versus adjusted net loss of Rs 660 crore (saw forex gain and gain from investment of Rs 330 crore in Q1). Operating profit margin (OPM) is seen declining to 8.4% versus 11.62% QoQ.

 

Revenues are seen going up 15% to 18,871 crore versus Rs 16,397 crore.

 

Factors to watch out for:

-Retail volumes stabilised, reached through levels in US and Europe, but UK has recovered

-JLR to benefit from low input cost and ongoing cost reduction programme

 

Volumes:

-JLR (Jaguar-Land Rover) to see higher volumes at 47000 units versus 35900 units in Q1

-Retail sales higher by 30-35%

-Volumes to be boosted in December due to launch of new XJ

 

Q1 Consolidated highlights

-Very disappointing on bottomline, although losses of Rs 330 crore on expected lines, if we remove exceptional items like forex gain, losses were far worse at Rs 647 crore.

-Forex gain and gain from sale of investment has lessened the damage

 

Summary: JLR to be EBITDA +ve, but expect consolidated adjusted loss 

-Unlike Q1, JLR expected to be EBITDA positive in Q2 as business enjoys strong incremental margins at current levels, volumes are higher and lower input costs.

-JLR to report 40 million pounds EBITDA versus loss of 62 million pounds in Q1FY10 

-On bottomline, expect consolidated profit of Rs 170 crore, but adjusted net loss of Rs 200 crore if we exclude Tata Steel share sale

 

Strong Market buzz: EBITDA to beat consensus, to come at 69 million pounds 

-Market has reacted in anticipation to good numbers

-Turnaround of Commercial vehicle space was the earlier trigger, now recovery of JLR has further boosted prospects

-Stock up 20% in last one month

-is at fresh 52-week high of Rs 644.