NTPC Q3 PAT likely to fall 5% at Rs 2250 cr

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NTPC , country's largest power generation company, is likely to report a profit after tax of Rs 2,250 crore in the quarter ended December FY12, a decline of 5% as compared to Rs 2,371 crore in a year ago quarter.

Net sales are seen going up by 17% to Rs 15,698 crore versus Rs 13,421 crore year-on-year.

EBITDA is likely to fall 9% to Rs 3,410 crore in the third quarter of FY12 versus Rs 3,764 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Operating profit margin is expected to be at 21.72% versus 28.05% during the same period.

Alert: EBITDA does not include 'other operating income' and 'depreciation write-backs' while it includes depreciation and provisions. Previous year's net sales included Rs 160 crore of sales pertaining to prior period.

Highlights

- Top line growth aided by commencement of new capacities and higher tariffs
* Company has commercialized 1660MW of additional capacities since last year
* Commissioned Unit 2 of 660MW in Sipat during Q3FY12; not commercialized yet

- Margins expected to decline due to higher fuel cost YoY

- Bottom line pressure expected due to higher interest and depreciation costs

Key factors to watch for -

Decline in PLFs YoY and QoQ
* Company's PLF might have declined despite PAFs improving due to SEBs backing out

- SEBs backing out

- Capacity commissioning schedule

Payment cycle from SEBs - Average receivable days have increased by 20-25 days due to poor financial health of SEBs

Current Capacities + Capacity addition plans

- NTPC currently has around 36000 MW of capacities under operation
* This includes 15 coal based, 7 gas based and 6 power stations in joint-venture

- NTPC expects to have a 1.28 lakh MW generation capacity by 2032

- Company has seen some delays in targeted capacity additions, especially in FY11
* Missed FY11 capex target by 43% - Reports

- Company has targeted capacity additions of around 5GW in FY12

- For the 12th plan, company plans to add around 25-35GW of capacities