UltraTech Cement Q1 PAT seen up 7% at Rs 730 cr

Its EBITDA is seen up 6% at Rs 1260 crore versus Rs 1188 crore.

Its EBITDA margins seen down at 25.22% versus 27.22%.

Its PAT is seen up 6.9% at Rs 730 crore versus Rs 683.11 crore.

Note:

In Q1FY12 , there was a tax reversal of Rs 125.52 crore due to excess provision related to previous year. Hence tax will appear higher in Q1FY13.

But Interests costs come in lower and Other Income will come in higher on a y-o-y basis

Quarter-on-Quarter          

The company's net sales are seen down 6.4% at Rs 4995 crore versus Rs 5336.59 crore.

Its EBITDA is seen flat at Rs 1260 crore versus Rs 1264 crore.    

Its EBITDA margins is seen up at 25.22% versus 23.7%.

The company's PAT is seen down 15.8% at Rs 730 crore versus Rs 867 crore.
               
Factors:

Topline will be aided by higher realizations and dispatches (y-o-y):

UltraTech’s PAN India presence will aid realizations: Avg India prices are up roughly 9% y-o-y and up 6%q-o-q

On a average Rs.15/ 50kg bag sequential improvement in realizations driven by March price hike

In addition prices rose even higher in April 2012 in some areas

But prices began to fall in Andhra Pradesh in May due to non-availability of sand

However prices stayed firm even in June owing to delayed monsoons

Higher Dispatches:

Revenues will also be aided by increase in cement dispatches which are expected to grow 9% yoy at 10.7 mnt but decline of 7% QoQ)

Note: Q4FY12 is a seasonally strong quarter so on a sequential basis volumes will dip

Margins will dip on a y-o-y basis due to higher operational costs (full impact of higher freight costs) but will improve sequentially due to price hikes:

On the energy cost front, no major savings as average drop in imported coal prices has likely been offset by depreciation in the rupee