UltraTech Cement Q1 PAT seen up 141% at Rs 280cr

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UltraTech Cement is to announce its first quarter results. According to CNBC-TV18's estimates, the company's Q1FY12 net sales are seen up 23.8% at Rs 3980 crore versus Rs 3214.7 crore, year-on-year, YoY.

Its EBITDA is seen up 68% at Rs 685 crore versus Rs 407.8 crore.

The company's EBITDA margins is seen up at 17.2% versus 12.7%.

Its PAT is seen up 1.4 times at Rs 280 crore versus Rs 115.77 crore

**Need to keep looking out for Tax reversal which has been happening over the past 2 quarters

** Also lower interest, higher other income and lower tax would restrict PAT decline

Q1FY12 (Q-o-Q)

Its net sales are seen down 8.8% at Rs 3980 crore versus Rs 4365.4 crore.

Its EBITDA is seen down 42.3% at Rs 685 crore versus Rs 1188 crore.

Its EBITDA margins are seen at 17.2% versus 27.2%.

The company's PAT is seen down 59% at Rs 280 crore versus Rs 683 crore.

Factors:

Blended realizations expected to decline q-o-q on account of sharp correction in prices (expect South)

Ultratech's has nearly 20% exposure in South India and stand to gain from the price resilience in South India

Cement prices in south are up strongly YoY & stable QoQ

Also Ultratech has got good geographical exposure all across the country and a diversified market mix 

((Central 2%South 20%East 19%North 30%West 29%))

Also Ultratech has got large exposure in West India which has been the the 2^nd most resilient part wrt cement prices

Though margin pressure is expected due to impact on higher costs of imported raw materials (like coal,gypsum, etc).

Lower realizations, cost inflation and negative operating leverage will impact EBITDA margin

Volumes estimated to be flat on a y-o-y due to low industry demand and also due to a subdued demand environment

Cement production and dispactches of UltraTech Cement have sustained for the period April-September 2011 and stood flat at 18.6 mt