SAIL Q4 PAT seen down 17% at Rs 1265cr

Its EBITDA is seen up 2% at Rs 2278.1 crore versus Rs 2143.9 crore.

Its EBITDA is seen at 16.7% versus 18%.

The company’s PAT is seen down 17.4% at Rs 1265 crore versus Rs 1530.6 crore.

Keep an eye out for write Back of Forex Loss as rupee slightly strengthened in Q4FY12

In Q3FY12, PAT was hampered due to forex loss of Rs 466.3cr

Taking the total notional loss for 9 mnths to Rs.986.7cr..part of this is likely to get reversed in Q4FY12

Volumes:

Sales volume is expected to increase 23% QoQ and up 2% y-o-y to 3.2m tons in a seasonally strong quarter
In Jan-Feb 12, SAIL had sold approx 2m tons

Realizations:

Avg realization expected to come in up 1-2% q-o-q basis and up 6% y-o-y
Domestic steel pricing showed an uptrend in 4QFY12 as long and flat prices increased by 5% and 2% QoQ respectively

Avg Realizations upside will be restricted on account of higher percentage of semis in the sales mix

EBITDA to improve sequentially(Margins to expand in absence of forex loss)

EBITDA margins are likely to remain flattish sequentially

EBITDA/t is expected to increase to USD 132 on account of better realisations, higher volume and low cost of raw material

Employee costs will rise QoQ led by wage hike provision for 50% of employee cost

Expect a reversal of MTM forex loss to the tune of Rs 400 crore

EBITDA/ton was suppressed in 3QFY12 due to forex loss of INR4.7b on deferred payments for imported input

Power and fuel expenses are expected to remain at elevated levels till the coke oven batteries at Bhilai restart

PAT:
Other income to decline due to lower cash and cash equivalent levels