Ranbaxy Q1 PAT seen up 34% at Rs 408 cr

Revenues are likely to shot up 70.5% to Rs 3,720 crore during January-March quarter of 2012 as against Rs 2,181 crore in a year ago period.

EBITDA is expected to be doubled at Rs 843 crore from Rs 403 crore during the same period.

Operating profit margin too is seen improving at 22.7% versus 18.5% year-on-year.

Like last quarter, the topline in Q1CY12 will be boosted by Lipitor generic & authorized generic launch of Caduet. As of March 2012, Ranbaxy had 45% market share in the Lipitor generic market. In Q4, Lipitor generic contributed USD 300 million to revenues and market share was 42% with price erosion of 65%.

Area of concern is India where growth has been subdued - In Q4 India grew 8% due to the acute therapies segment that is 60% of domestic sales.

Growth across other geographies such as Europe and Australia will be boosted due to Lipitor launch in those countries. Otherwise last quarter geographies were muted on constant currency terms with CIS down 9% and EU flat YoY. Africa, however, was up 18% led by tender sales.

EBITDA will be similar to Q4 at Rs 800 crore levels assuming similar payout to Teva on Lipitor (USD 150 million or Rs 750 crore) included in other expenses