Lupin Q3 PAT seen up 4% to Rs 233 cr

Revenues are seen going up by 15% to Rs 1,730 crore from Rs 1,510 crore year-on-year.

EBITDA is likely to go up by 8.2% to Rs 321.7 crore in the third quarter of FY12 versus Rs 297.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Operating profit margin is expected to be at 18.6% versus 19.7% year-on-year and 22.8% QoQ.

On quarter-on-quarter basis, revenues are likely to fall 2.4% and profit after tax is seen going down 13%.                                                              

Watch out for

> Revenues to be driven via India + Export formulation

> In Q2 formulation grew 28% to Rs 1588 crore (US+ Europe up 8% to Rs 694 crore and Japan up 14% to Rs 178 cr)

> US to accelerate versus earlier 4 quarters via key launches such as Femcon Fe, Keppra and LoSeasonique
*Q2 US grew 15% (17.5% branded + 16.5% generics) with launch of 5 products
*Within branded watch for Suprax (grew 43% in Q2 while Antara was down 3% & Aerochamber) Price decline in Lotrel will drag on overall growth rate in the US (Ex Lotrel US grew 30% vs 14% in Qw)

>Semi Regulated markets to continue growth trend (grew 35% YoY to Rs 160 crore)

>Expect 20% + growth in India – due to chronic segment + addition of Eli Lilly s Insulin Franchise (Rs 27 crore expected)
*In Q2 India grew 22% and Eli Lily Deal generated Rs 18 crore in Q2FY12

> Watch out for API which could be flat to decline in Q2 API was flat at Rs 195 crore

> Margins to be in the same range but adverse currency movement could affect it (USD 200 million hedged @ Rs 46)

> 20 to 25% guidance in FY12 for Lupin and margins of 20%+