Idea Cellular Q2 PAT seen down 8.6% at Rs 161.9 cr

Published on Fri, Oct 21, 2011 at 11:05 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Fri, Oct 21, 2011 at 11:07  

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Idea Cellular Q2 PAT seen down 8.6% at Rs 161.9 cr

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Telecom operator Idea Cellular is expected to report a fall of 8.6% quarter-on-quarter in its profit after tax of Rs 161.9 crore for the quarter ended September FY12 as against Rs 177.2 crore in the previous quarter, according to CNBC-TV18 estimates.

Revenues are seen going up by 2.8% to Rs 4,650 crore from Rs 4,520.7 crore quarter-on-quarter.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are likely to move up to Rs 1,230 crore from Rs 1,204 crore during the same period.

Operational parameters - Revenues per minute (RPM) could improve marginally for the second consecutive quarter

Average revenues per user (ARPU) Rs 158 versus Rs 160

Minutes of usage (MOU) at 381 versus 391

RPM at 41.3 paise versus 40.9 paise

Total minutes up 4.3% at Rs 113.3b versus 108.6b   

Revenues growth not spectacular due to seasonal weakness in subscriber addition
•          Revenues growth has been industry leading for the past few quarter (( Q1FY12 at 6.7%, Q4FY11 at 4%, Q3FY11 at 8.2%)

Margins likely to flat -
•          Positive impact of lower SG&A cost to offset Negative impact of impact of wage hike
•          Margins improved last quarter from 25.4% due strong operating performance in established circles - has been reducing cost per min (while for bharti cost per min has remained constant)

Street estimates on PAT vary from Rs 126-201 crore - due to difference assumptions of D&A, and interest

ARPMS could be marginally higher driven by tariff increases

Key issues to watch:

Losses in new circles is a drag on their profitability (in Q1 EBITDA losses in new circles widen to Rs 139.7 crore versus loss of Rs 117.3 crore  -- disappointing

Subscriber reaction to tariff increases and potential for further increases

3G progress

  

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