Q3 result analysis: Bajaj Hind, Aurobindo Ph, LT Overseas

Published on Thu, Jan 31, 2008 at 14:08 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Thu, Jan 31, 2008 at 14:22  

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Mudar Patherya , Investment Advisor

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Investment Advisor Mudar Patherya told CNBC-TV18 that he is positively surprised by Bajaj Hindusthan's results. He is neutral on Aurobindo Pharma and LT Overseas.

 

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Mudar Patherya:

 

Q: On subject of sugar, you liked Bajaj Hindusthan 's numbers this time, it was a hit?

 

A: Pleasant surprise, I expected to see red on the balance sheet or rather, the P&L A/c. I was pleasantly surprised because I felt that most UP-based sugar manufacturers would have huge losses. So it comes as surprise. But a curious mind always looks beyond the numbers and I have realized that out of Rs 40 crore Ptax, Rs 29 crore has come from power - the revenues from power.

 

 I don't know whether one needs to get into audited numbers and one needs to get beyond seasonal variations and one needs to get around counting interpretations. But broadly, I'm little curious about company that makes Rs 29 crore of profit out of Rs 35 crore topline from power. But all said and done, if one takes the numbers at the face value look pretty impressive, attractive and contrarian because I think most of the companies would report losses in the December quarter.

 

Q: You didn't quite like Aurobindo Pharma 's numbers though?

 

A: I think this is something very fundamental to investors and they need to remember that when one invests in a company which has a diversified portfolio of products as in a pharmaceutical company, certain products will do well and certain products will not do well. And for Aurobindo in the last quarter, which is the December quarter, Penicillin G has turned out to be a small time villain and unfortunately prices have declined sharply to almost half the bottomline.

 

And if one has a weak-heart, one shouldn't invest in pharmaceutical stocks, because one quarter we have phenomenal results; the second quarter was outstanding for Aurobindo but the third quarter was not. And I think, if I say it's a miss - it's largely because there is no predictability.

 

Obviously in the next financial year, when the US generic operations were on stream and they expected to do well, there are very few investors who have any clue about it and it's largely an insider's information and sensitive information, which drives the stock or the informed opinion but not general lay-investor insight.

 

Q: What about something like an LT Overseas , what about the numbers there?

 

A: Very curious. I must credit the management for enhancing the margins by about by 400 bps in the December-quarter over the previous quarter. But at the same time, it's very curious that a company which is been struggling into a tramline situation - Tramline situation is very interesting- it's basically where one is in a bind and one can't escape - for the last four quarters, I'm seeing it's Rs 63-64-65-66-63 crore - they haven't been able to break out and somewhere down the line, someone needs to ask the management that if one is into a business that's giving an EBITDA margin of 30% as in the last quarter, what are you doing as far as your topline is concerned and where is your capacity expansion coming from.

 

I know for the fact that they are intending to expand capacity form Rs 9,100 tonnes per annum to Rs 18,000. but I'm little surprised that they haven't yet got it on stream. I'm little surprised that they have expanding margins on the one hand but I don't see increase in volumes. if that would have happened, this would have been a double whammy to look out for. So to that extent, I'm relatively neutral on LT - very attracted by the increase in margins but no topline increase; very disappointing.

 

Q: What's you gut feeling about the market now after all that's happened in the last fortnight, how do you see things moving from here?

 

A: There's a gut feel and there's a mind feel. The mind feel is that I shouldn't answer your question because I should always tell you the standard reply - look at individual stocks, don't look at the market. I have always been saying that consistently. But there's a gut feel and the gut feel is that 15,800 is the bottom. 15,800 can't be corroborated, but I think we need to cry and weep before the market gives us the extravagance or the opportunity of laughter. We haven't yet wept. Some people have but not extensively. Until we weep including myself, I don't think there can be an upturn. But that's only a gut feel, no corroboration.

 

Mudar Patherya's Disclaimer:

I don't hold any of the stocks discussed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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