Aurobindo does not declare consolidated quarterly results. This quarterly estimates are standalone, while annual estimates are on a consolidated basis.
Sales are expected to be at Rs 5.2 billion, growth of 13% YoY on account of improved traction in Pen-G based business and incremental contribution from USA as well as higher ARV sales.
Margins are expected to be stable at 15.7%, despite improvement in market and product mix, as the company continues to invest in its regulated generics business.
However, high other income at Rs 259 million (up 131% YoY) and lower tax provisioning (at 20.1% of PBT v/s 31.9% in 4QFY06) would boost PAT growth to 51% to Rs 565 million.
We have upgraded our earnings estimate for FY07E and FY08E by 6-8%, to factor in for higher interest income on account of unutilized FCCB funds.
Despite the progress on regulated market initiatives and slight recovery of Pen G prices, earnings visibility is poor. Given its high leverage and modest return ratios, we believe valuations at 20.4x and 16.2x FY07E and FY08E earnings are expensive. We maintain Sell.