Buy Hexaware Tech; target of Rs 120: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal is bullish on Hexaware Tech and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 120 in its February 12, 2013 research report.
 
“Hexaware's 4QCY12 results were in line with our estimates. Revenues were USD92m (v/s est of USD92.4m), down 0.4percent QoQ due to a project cancellation in top client. EBIT margin declined 480bp QoQ to 15.1percent (v/s est of 430bp QoQ decline). PAT was at INR637m, adjusting for the tax write-back (in-line). For CY13, company guided for "double digit" USD revenue growth. This still implies a 4percent CQGR over 2Q-4Q, considering 1Q revenues at the midpoint of USD94-95m guided band (1.7-2.8percent QoQ). On the back of cost levers, it guided for 150-200bp QoQ recovery in margins in 1QCY13. HEXW cited recovery in a top account despite a blip in 4Q (down 21.3percent QoQ to USD10.8m).”
 
“The account is expected to grow YoY in CY13 and top 10 clients should continue to contribute over half of the revenues. Oracle is expected to release its new version of Peoplesoft in CY13. However, revenues from upgrades are anticipated to accrue to HEXW largely from CY14. We have lowered CY13E EBITDA margin estimate by 140bp to 18.3percent as the margin slide in 4Q is expected to be recovered only gradually. Lower margin estimate in CY13E drives 9.7percent cut in EPS estimate for CY13E. We model conservatively and estimate CY13E USD revenue growth of 8.5percent.”
 
“We expect HEXW to post USD revenues at a CAGR of 10percent over CY12-14E and EPS CAGR of 7percent. Lower CAGR is on account of 120bp decline in EBITDA margin estimate in CY14E (19.7percent) over CY12. Guidance of 4percent+ revenue growth over 2Q-4Q, growth in top account and likely revenue uptick from Peoplesoft are positive cues on growth. However, failure to close large deals and high client concentration are key risks. With utilization at significantly low levels, we expect HEXW to be able to drive better margins, going forward. From valuation perspective, the healthy cash pile, board's decision to stick to ~50percent payout policy and 25percent+ return ratios are positives. Our target price of INR120 discounts CY14E EPS by 10x. Buy,” says Motilal Oswal research report.

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