Buy Grasim Industries; target Rs 2,666: Motilal Oswal

Published on Mon, Jan 30, 2012 at 16:22 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Mon, Jan 30, 2012 at 16:24  

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Buy Grasim Industries; target Rs 2,666: Motilal Oswal

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Motilal Oswal is bullish on Grasim Industries and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 2,666 in its January 25, 2012 research report.

"Grasim Industries' 3QFY12 standalone numbers were lower than our expectations, impacted by ~8% YoY decline in VSF volumes. EBITDA for the quarter was INR2.8b (v/s our estimate of INR3.46b) and EBITDA margin was 22.7% (v/s our estimate of 26.4%). Net sales grew 2% YoY to INR12.4b (our estimate: INR13.1b), EBITDA was up 23% YoY at INR2.8b and PAT declined 3% YoY to INR2.75b. EBITDA margin declined 720bp YoY (~140bp QoQ) to 22.7% (our estimate: 26.4%)."

"VSF business volumes were 78,215 tons (lower than our estimate of 88,520 tons), impacted by cautious approach adopted by the value chain due to global economic uncertainties. While VSF realizations at INR128/kg were in-line, lower than estimated volumes and higher cost push resulted in lower than expected PBITDA margin at 25.6% (our estimate: 29.1%). The management indicated that the unprecedented volatility in the VSF business over the last few quarters is likely to remain, as both competing fabrics - cotton and polyester - are witnessing high volatility. While demand at the retail level is holding up, demand from the chain has been muted in 3QFY12 and is now picking up in January 2012."

"We downgrade our consolidated EPS estimates by 2.4% to INR293 for FY12 and by 3.6% to INR345 for FY13 to factor in lower volumes and higher cost push. The stock trades at 7.2x FY13E consolidated EPS and an EV of 4.5x FY13E EBTIDA; implied valuation for the cement business is USD78/ton. Maintain Buy with an SOTP-based target price of INR 2,666," says Motilal Oswal research report.

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