Buy Cairn India, target Rs 305:Religare

Published on Fri, Aug 01, 2008 at 10:19 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Fri, Aug 29, 2008 at 12:37  

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Religare has maintained buy rating on Cairn India with target price of Rs 305 in its July 31, 2008 report. "Cairn India (CIL) has recorded healthy growth during the April-June quarter riding on the global rise in crude oil prices. Net revenues increased 66% YoY to Rs 4 billion while net profit stood at Rs 1.4 billion against a loss of Rs 714 million in Q2CY07, slightly above our expectations. However, the EBITDA margin declined significantly QoQ due to higher drilling activities, which inflated exploration costs. The company's average oil price realisation increased to USD 126/bbl in Q2CY08 from USD 70/bbl in Q2CY07, while gas price realisation remained flat at USD 4.3/mscf.

The management expects production from its Ravva and Cambay basins to decline during the next two quarters to an average of 16,000-17,000boepd. Further, exploration expenses would remain on the higher side which would constrain margins. We are revising our estimates for CY08 to incorporate a crude price realisation of USD 120/bbl from USD 90/bbl earlier; however, we maintain our projection of USD 90/bbl for subsequent years. Further, we are raising our cost of equity to 14.7% from 12.7%, which has caused WACC to move from 12% to 13.8%. Consequently, our target price reduces to Rs 305 from Rs 314. We maintain a Buy recommendation on the stock" according to Religare research report.

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