Accumulate Shriram Transport; tgt of Rs 577: SKP Securities

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Accumulate Shriram Transport; tgt of Rs 577: SKP Securities

SKP Securities is bullish on Shriram Transport Finance Corporation and has recommended accumulate rating on the stock with a target of Rs 577 in its January 12, 2012 research report.

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SKP Securities is bullish on Shriram Transport Finance Corporation and has recommended accumulate rating on the stock with a target of Rs 577 in its January 12, 2012 research report.

"Incorporated in 1979, Shriram Transport Finance Co Ltd. (STFC) is a flagship company of the Shriram group. It is the largest asset financing NBFC with assets under management (AUM) of Rs 380.8 bn (Q2FY12). The company commands a leadership position in organized financing of pre-owned trucks with strategic presence in 5-12 year old trucks and a market share of around 20-25%. It also has a 7-8% market share in the new CV financing space."

"Soaring interest rates have softened the GDP/IIP growth and put pressure on new CV sales. Considering the fact that 24% (Q2FY12) of STFCs AUM embraces new CV sales, slowing economy is likely to have repercussion on its loan growth. However, we do believe pre-owned CVs are less susceptible to rising interest rates but prolonged slowdown in economy is likely to hurt STFCs growth in AUM. We expect its AUM growth to slow down to 12.5% in FY12E. A majority of STFC's borrowings is funded by banks, since loans to NBFCs are no longer classified as priority sector lending it has eradicated a lower source of funding for STFC and thereby increased its cost of funds. As these funds are cheaper by ~75-100 bps than otherwise. We expect STFCs cost of funds to relieve in FY13E, when the liquidity scenario lightens up. STFC wrote off loans worth Rs. 600 mn in Q2FY12 and expected to write off additional loans worth Rs. 200 mn in Q3FY12E, owing to mining ban in Karnataka. The total exposure to mining equipment vehicles is ~2% of the total portfolio. Moreover, adherence to the proposed RBI guideline regarding new NPA recognition norm from 180 days to 90 days is likely to add pressure to soaring NPAs. We expect gross NPAs to rise to 2.9% in FY12E and 3.0% in FY13E."

"We initiate coverage on STFC with an Accumulate rating and a target price of Rs.577 per share yielding a potential upside of 12%. STFC trades at P/BV multiple of 1.9x and 1.6x on book value per share of Rs. 265 and Rs. 320 for FY12E and FY13E respectively. Our target price is based on a target multiple of 1.8x on FY13E ABV of Rs. 312. Given the correction that the stock has undergone in the last 9 months, we believe that concerns regarding the margin woes and the regulatory headwinds have been factored in," says SKP Securities research report.           

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To read the full report click on the attachment