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Jan 17, 2012, 10.49 AM IST
PINC Research has come out with its report on various stocks.
ASHOK LEYLAND : Our earnings estimates for FY12 and FY13 are Rs2.5 and Rs3.1 respectively. Our FY13 earnings estimate is 11.2% higher than the consensus estimate of Rs2.7.We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs38, which discounts FY13E earnings by 12.5x.
ASHOKA BUILDCON : Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs19.4 and Rs25.9, 15.8% and 14.4% lower than consensus estimates respectively. We expect top-line growth of 29.3% and 30.1% to Rs16.8bn and Rs21.9bn in FY12E and FY13E vs. consensus forecasts of 28.2% and 32.5% to Rs16.7bn and Rs22.1bn, respectively. We value BOT (on a DCF basis) at FY12E and FY13E equity multiples of 1.6x and 1.1x, respectively. Our SOTP-based target price is Rs321, where BOT is valued at Rs198 and EPC at Rs122 (8x FY12E earnings). The stock offers an upside potential of 75.2% at our SOTP-based target price of Rs321 vs. consensus target of Rs293.
BAJAJ AUTO : Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs107.5 and Rs123.3, respectively. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs1,850 discounting FY13E earnings at 15x. Our FY13 earnings estimate is 3.3% higher than the consensus estimate of Rs119.4.
CESC : Our FY12 & FY13 PAT estimates are in line with consensus. We value various projects - both existing and future - on FCFE basis to arrive at a target price of Rs346 (terminal growth rate 3% and cost of equity 15%).
HCL TECH : Our revenue estimates marginally differ from consensus by 1% and (0.7%) for FY12 and FY13 respectively. While EBITDA margin and EPS estimates for FY12 are higher than consensus by 58 bps and 7% respectively; for FY13 EBITDA margin and EPS estimates lag the consensus by 46bps and 3% respectively.
HSIL : Our earnings estimates (EPS) for FY12 and FY13 are Rs20.0 and Rs27.4, respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is 12% higher than the consensus estimate of Rs17.8. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs270, which discounts FY12e earnings by 13.5x.
INFOSYS : Our revenue estimates are inline with consensus for FY12 and marginally lower than consensus for FY13 by 1.3%. EBITDA margin estimates are higher by 112bps for FY12 and 80 bps for FY13. While our EPS estimate is 1.8% higher than consensus EPS for FY12, it lags the consensus by 1.2% for FY13.
IRB INFRA : Our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates are Rs14.5 and Rs12.5, 0.9% and 20.9% lower than consensus estimates respectively. We expect top-line growth of 28.2% and 22.3% to Rs31.3bn and Rs38.2bn in FY12E and FY13E vs. consensus forecasts of 29.6% and 24.3% to Rs31.6bn and Rs39.2bn, respectively.
JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): Our FY13 revenue estimate is 5% below consensus. However, our FY13 EPS estimate of Rs8 is in-line with consensus. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs148 (18.6xFY13E EPS).
JYOTHY LABORATORIES : Our estimates for FY13 are among the highest on the street, led by expectation of better performance of the core business and sustainability of Henkel's profitable performance. We assign 16x to FY13E earnings and add Rs12/share NPV on tax saving of Rs1.2bn @12% discount rate to derive the TP of Rs212.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA : Our FY12 and FY13 earnings forecast are Rs45.7 and Rs52.9 respectively. Our FY13 earning estimate is in line with the consensus estimate. We value M&M at Rs882 using SOTP methodology, discounting the standalone business at 13x FY13E earnings.
NESTLE INDIA : Our estimates and target price are lower than the consensus, led by the expectation of pressure on EBITDA margin and argument of narrowing down of the Nestle's valuation premium. We assign P/E of 30x on the next 12-months earnings to derive a TP of Rs3,618.
NIIT TECH : Our top-line estimate for FY12 is marginally higher by 1.6% than consensus while lag the consensus for FY13 by 1.4%. Our EBITDA margin estimates for FY12 are marginally lower than consensus by 26bps and in line with consensus for FY13. Our EPS estimates for FY12 & FY13 lag the consensus by 0.5% and 4.2% respectively.
PHOENIX MILLS : Our EPS estimates for FY12 and FY13 are Rs10.8 and Rs11.9 respectively. Our FY12 earnings estimate is 21% higher than consensus estimate of Rs8.9. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs265 after assigning 15% discount to FY12E gross NAV.
POWER GRID : Our FY12 & FY13 PAT estimates are in line with consensus. We value PGCIL on FCFE basis to arrive at a target price of Rs120 (terminal growth rate 3% and 13% Ke).
TECPRO SYSTEMS : We expect EPS of Rs31.0 and Rs37.4 in FY12 and FY13, respectively, almost in line with consensus forecasts. We expect 9% growth in order inflow in FY12, whereas some analysts forecast de-growth of ~30-35%. However, the management has guided for ~30% growth in order inflow in FY12. We maintain a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs375 (10x FY13E).
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Tags: various stocks, PINC Research, Recommendation, ASHOK LEYLAND, ASHOKA BUILDCON, BAJAJ AUTO, CESC, HCL TECH, HSIL, INFOSYS, IRB INFRA, JAGRAN PRAKASHAN, JYOTHY LABORATORIES, MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA, NESTLE INDIA, NIIT TECH, PHOENIX MILLS, POWER GRID, TECPRO SYSTEMS
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