Real-time Stock quotes, portfolio, LIVE TV and more.
Jun 14, 2012, 09.55 AM IST
Aditi Phadnis, columnist, Business Standard, explains to CNBC-TV18 that whatever the outcome of this Presidential election, the nation should be prepared to face the Lok Sabha elections in the next couple months, because this government not going to be tenable at all. It’s just too unstable.
Below is an edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Did Manmohan Singh's name as President catch you off guard?
A: The allies want to prove that this is a total lame-duck government. On careful analysis of Sharad Pawar's statement, you will notice that he has recalibrated his position and has quoted in news agency that there should be a consensus candidate.
Earlier he and his party said that they would back Congress as they did not have the numbers and gave the same reason they gave for not backing Sangma. Now, Sharad Pawar says there should be somebody who is a consensus candidate. In this situation contest cannot be avoided and he wants to become a kingmaker.
He is aware of the fact that knows numerically Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee and Sharad Pawar together with DMK throwing its hat in the ring will represent an extremely embracing position for the Congress.
Virtually, Manmohan Singh has now becomes the target of the UPA allies and they have more or less said that he can be extracted out of the government and kicked upstairs and they would not mind that. Now, it will become very difficult for Manmohan Singh to have any traction if he had some in the first place with the allies like Mamata Banerjee.
Q: What now for Pranab Mukherjee? Is he out of the race?
A: I don’t think one can categorically say that Pranab is out of the race, although according to Congress, he was never in the race. He is the only one who has said that he is in the race.
We have to understand that whatever is the outcome of this Presidential election, we should be prepared as a nation to face Lok Sabha elections in the next couple months, because this is not going to be tenable at all. It’s just too unstable.
The locus of equilibrium has shifted and it’s too difficult now with all the established bullets having been destroyed for the government to be workable for any length of time.
Q: You mean mid-term election is now inevitable?
A: Now, the forces that have been unleashed by this Presidential election will work towards a mid-term election.
Q: Will Congress try and strategise its move after today’s event or will there be complete silence till June 23?
A: There will be radio silence till June 23, but Congress will be strategizing even as we speak. The future leadership strategies of Congress will be showcased the way they handle this crisis. This is a first class crisis, chief ministers have spoken to others are completely thrown by this.
Now, you either stand by the name which is internally floated which is Pranab Mukherjee and make your candidate win despite UPA allies rebelling or give up to the pressure and then deal with it.
Q: If they pull the rug from underneath Pranab Mukherjee's feet the last thing the country and this economy needs is a disgruntle finance minister?
A: I don't think Pranab Mukherjee will then continue and Congress will want him to be the finance minister any more. There are chances that he may become deputy Prime Minister with some other portfolio.
Q: Would you put your money on Pranab Mukherjee as Deputy Prime if he doesn’t make it to Rashtrapati Bhavan?
A: I think he will be elevated because I don’t think the Congress would like to see him publically humiliated the way it has happened now.
Jun 18 2013, 22:39
- in MARKET OUTLOOK
Jun 18 2013, 22:39
- in Business