Jayalalitha may join hands with NDA post results: Expert

Published on Wed, May 13, 2009 at 09:37 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, May 13, 2009 at 10:36  

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Cho Ramaswamy, Political Analyst, Tughlak

Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show ยป

Today India will go through the last and crucial phase of elections. Political Analyst Cho Ramaswamy speaking on if Jayalalitha may join the NDA post 16 May, said, "It cannot be ruled out. Although the Congress has been saying that they will have nothing to do with her and will stay with the DMK. If the DMK puts up a very poor show despite the money spending and all that vote splitting done by Vijaykant, the Congress may need Jaya [Jayalalitha] to form a government. And it will come at a price. She will demand that the Congress withdraw support to the DMK Ministry here in Tamil Nadu. If the Congress is willing to do that, she may support the Congress government. If the Congress is not within striking distance of power, then she would go with the NDA. There is no problem for her because on most issues she and BJP see eye to eye."

On ADMK:

Though usually the winner takes all, there have been times when the stakes have been 25-15 also. It happened as recently as 1999. The ADMK got 24 and DMK got 16. This time, the ADMK is poised to do a good show. But two factors have to be taken into account. One is the vote splitting that would be done by Vijaykant--DMDK leader. He is contesting all seats and will cut into Jayalalitha's votes because Jaya's votes are anti-DMK vote, at least part of it Vijaykant would share. To what extent may determine the scale of her victory. Another factor is DMK, everyone is now aware that DMK will spend a lot of money today and tomorrow, perhaps and what impact that will have, one has to recon with that also, that happened in a by-election in Tiruvanduram also.

On dismissal of Tamil Nadu government:

The question of dismissal is only if it is NDA. The Congress need not dismiss the Tamil Nadu government. It is enough if they withdraw support. The government exists on Congress support. If they withdraw support, Karunanidhi falls. So it will not be necessary to do the dismissal act. For NDA it will be necessary, but I don't think Jaya will give that demand to NDA because she must be aware that dismissal of state government is not that easy these days because of the court and all that.

On Sri Lanka issue:

I don't think it becoming a poll issue here. The politicians are indulging in all kinds of talks about the Lankan situation, particularly the opposition and Jaya saying the army should be sent and all that. But the people are not affected by it. The Tamil Nadu people are concerned for welfare of Lankan Tamils, but it cannot become a poll issue here and even this time it cannot be so. I will tell you something, Jaya TV says it gives live telecast of Jayas meeting. Before the meeting starts, the anchor goes around and asks people why they prefer ADMK. They give all kinds of reasons like price rise, unemployment, power cuts, law and order, so many, to one of them has mentioned Sri Lankan issue as an issue to consider by them. So it is not an issue people are considering. But it lends itself to rhetoric, it embarrasses the DMK and Congress, so the opposition would naturally speak about it.

On BJP

In my opinion the NDA has to, The BJP has to fare much better than the Congress because the Cong does not seem to have any state for itself except Kerala. In Andhra they are not sure. Rajasthan they may share with the BJP. Where else? But the BJP has MP, Gujarat, Chattisgarh, and Jharkhand--so many states. It is expected to do very well with Bihar. BJP will do very well, but finding post poll allies which is much more important than winning an election, that one has to see how fat the BJP is able to manage that.

  

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