Can women's quota bill pass lok sabha test

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The Congress led United Progressive Alliance government is elated after the Rajya Sabha passed the Women's Reservation Bill but the real test is still to take place in the Lok Sabha.
With Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress opposing the Bill and the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Samajwadi Party withdrawing support to the UPA Government, the future seems uncertain.
The Government may still have the numbers in the Lok Sabha, but it is fast shrinking. The majority is now just wafer thin, making passage of reforms and bold policies difficult.
Before the Women's Reservation Bill was brought in Parliament the UPA enjoyed the support of 321 MPs.
But with the RJD and the Samajwadi Party withdrawing support to the Government, the UPA has now just 295 votes. While the RJD has four MPs, the Samajwadi Party has 22 MPs.
UPA is not sure of support of the Bahujan Samaj Party, which has 21 MPs in the Lok Sabha that leaves the Government very close to the half-way mark with only 274 votes.
"We are aware of the consequences. I am not worried, the party is not worried. We deal with those consequences," said Congress MP and party spokesperson Jayanthi Natarajan.
However, it is Mamata who poses the biggest problem. With West Bengal elections being her priority, she is believed to be upset with the Left and Congress sharing same space over the Women's Reservation Bill.
She is also worried over alienation of minority votes, which play a crucial role in West Bengal.
But now with both Lalu and Mulayam promising to go to President Pratibha Patil and hand over the letter of withdrawal of their support, UPA has reasons to be worried.
Finance bills have to be passed and it may be difficult without the support of the RJD and the Samajwadi Party.
"I am sending my letter withdrawing support to the Government," said Lalu on Tuesday after the Rajya Sabha passed the Bill.
"I had clearly warned that if the Women's Reservation Bill is passed with the amendments that we had recommended then we would withdraw our support," added Mulayam
Meanwhile, sources say that the UPA may try to buy time in the name of building consensus.
Communist Party of India-Marxist MP Brinda Karat also raises doubts over the Bill being introduced in the Lok Sabha.
"Please don't do it just for the sake of doing it. You (Government) have managed to get it passed in the Rajya Sabha. Do better homework in Lok Sabha, do better floor management and please bring it to the Lok Sabha because that is when it will really have some meaning and weight," appealed Brinda.
But with Rajya Sabha passing the Bill on March 9 a slice of history and a political point has already been made.
But in the end, real politics may sway.