See FY10 fiscal deficit near target: ICICI Prudential
Published on Tue, Jul 07, 2009 at 11:02 | Source : CNBC-TV18
Updated at Fri, Jul 17, 2009 at 10:00
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See FY10 fiscal deficit near target: ICICI Prudential
The fiscal deficit in 2009-10 was proposed at 6.8% of gross domestic products (GDP). Commenting on the same, Nilesh Shah of ICICI Prudential, said there was high probability of actual fiscal deficit being near the target. “Looking at the deficit, it doesn't look like the interest rates can soften further,” he said.
Q: The budget is behind us, sharp reaction has happened - from hereon people seem to be mapping global cues more closely and there some strains have discomfort or coming to the fore. How are you reading the global cues and what you are getting from global institutional investors?
A: Before the budget and post election most of the global institutional investors were exceedingly bullish on India and I think the budget hasn't changed that view. Even yesterday's selling purportedly was more by the momentum and hedge fund investors rather than the long only players. Market probably was a bit euphoric in expectations from the budget and now there is a reality check. As the budget event has passed they need to look at some other factors which can influence the market and as of today apart from monsoon, global cues, global recovery probably is something which is more visible. We are student of the global markets; we don't track them that closely and understand that minutely but whatever we can observe from the market's statistic not from the strategist's viewpoint but from the market's statistics, the yields in the US markets have soften, they are now trading at around 3.5% level which probably signifies that there is some amount of softness in the market and if the global central banks do not tighten their policy too quickly then hopefully things will start stabilising. Yesterday there was a contra call on the US GDP growth by Merrill Lynch which projected higher GDP growth than the consensus. So there is difference of opinion in global recovery and we need to be watchful about the same but at the end of the day we just have to remember one thing - world has less opportunities and more money, we have more opportunities and need of capital - if we can bridge this gap then we need not worry about global cues.
Q: You are confident then that paper via Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) or primary market offering or follow-on public offering (FPO) will go absorbed and we will get enough interest as well?
A: If they are quality companies at reasonable price, I think there is enough demand and appetite at the local and at the global investors' level. However there are companies which are going to survive purely based on the equities raised from the market exorbitant valuation those QIPs will not be able to go through. So it's the question of pricing and the quality, at a price everything can sell.