See Sensex range of 13000-22000 for 2010: Credit Suisse

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Year 2010 will be a tricky, volatile one for equities in India, believes Nilesh Jasani, MD and Head - Research, Credit Suisse. Jasani spoke to CNBC-TV18 in an exclusive interview on how he sees markets going forward.

"It's going to be one of those years where we will at times fall a lot and we are going to go through that particular period for the next few months and then if one or two things go right, it should fairly easily pick up from there and ride about 50-60% from the bottom," he said.

Jasani said one may see the Sensex touching both 13,000 and 22,000 at some point in the year. "It's going to be a fairly volatile market and there will be great opportunities but you could make bad mistakes too, if you are not watchful."

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Nilesh Jasani on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What's your call for 2010 because over the last few weeks we have heard a varying range of opinion from the bullish to the bearish?

A: It's going to be a very volatile year. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people in the market think that it's going to be a straight forward year either in the way up or down. I think it's going to be one of those years where we will at times fall a lot and we are going to go through that particular period for the next few months and then if one or two things go right, it should fairly easy to pick up some from there and ride about 50-60% from the bottom.

So it's a bad thing to say, as a strategist, you don't give up a point forecast, but this year we are likely to see both sides of 13,000 and 22,000 on the Sensex, if I have to put some numbers. It's going to be a fairly volatile market and there will be great opportunities and also many of those points where you will be making some very bad mistakes also, if you are not watchful.

Q: That's quite a call; are you suggesting that we could see a 9,000 point Sensex volatility by the time the year is out, that big a range?

A: If you look back, let's say last 15-17 years, I think except of one year since 1995, the minimum move that you have from the low of the year to the high of the year is more than 50%. I mean 50-60% moves in Sensex, from the low to the high every year, are fairly usual.

Obviously you have a weird year like 2008, when you have a 120% more or something like that from the low to the high and 2009 similar and hopefully it won't be that volatile. But even in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, when we were on a stead path as such, that's how it appears in memory, the low to the high range every year was more than 50%. So it's not big a call when you put in historical context.

Q: But do you think this level of 13,000ish that could be the base of the year, is more likely to come in the first half of the year?

A: I am reasonably sure about that. If you look at the market or look at the general environment, there are two-three things that have happened which are very different this year compared to last year. Last year for policy makers globally and definitely in India growth was the top priority; it was a very simple environment where growth was such a huge problem that everything else really paled into insignificance. Now, this year growth is coming back and all of a sudden governments after governments around the world and that is also again happening in India, people are realizing that there are other issues that need a bit of attention and at times a bit of growth sacrifice or sentiment sacrifice is needed to address those problems. In the US, it could be financial sector regulations; it could be fiscal deficit in Europe for certain nations, it could be inflation in India and China. But all of a sudden what we are witnessing is that everyone suddenly has got different priorities and growth all of a sudden doesn't really feature that high on everyone's agenda.