See no signs of concern for market: Motilal Oswal AMC

Published on Wed, Nov 18, 2009 at 09:40 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, Nov 18, 2009 at 17:02  

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Nitin Rakesh, CEO, Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company

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In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Nitin Rakesh CEO- Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC) spoke about his reading of the market and his outlook.

Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview. Also watch the video.

Q: Any signs of tiredness after the recent rally or you think the market is good for more by the time the year is out?

A: We have stopped trying to predict where the market is going to peak out. The momentum is fairly strong. The global liquidity flows continue to be very robust. There is a global move across all large institutional investors to allocate or go overweight the emerging markets. We are seeing a lot of that playing out in the markets. So I wouldn't say that things look like they are tired but we need to be a lot more stock specific but overall things look pretty okay.

Q: So, on a probability basis you would say by the end of December the market would be higher from this level rather than lower?

A: It is very difficult to say - between now and December a lot can happen because we may go up and come back again. But broadly, as I said, we see no signs of why there should be a cause for concern. In the shorter run, the market tends to run ahead of them and look for next triggers. Where we stand today, all triggers point to the fact that the markets should continue to stay buoyant and there will be periods of going above and below the mean as well. But overall as I said, all signs are that we have strong global tailwinds, strong liquidity flows, good growth environment in most sectors and companies. So we continue to be positive.

Q: Are you getting a handle of what kind of money this is that were attracting? Is it the last bit of money that was sitting on people's portfolio and is now being deployed in markets or are you hearing and sensing that there is fresh money being raised for a market like India?

A: This is based on my personal interaction with a few large investors over the last two weeks that I was traveling. The sense we are getting is that this is actually not hot money and the reason we say is that most of the money that we see coming in is from allocators or large institutional investors who mostly allocate across markets and geographies and asset classes.

So it doesn't look like hot money. It doesn't look like it's the hedge fund kind of an asset flow. A lot of the flows that we have seen in the last few weeks has come in from exchange-traded fund (ETF) players and those typically tend to be more stable long-term investors who take a call on allocations.

There is a mega trend that we are seeing, which is that allocations are going to continue to be higher towards emerging markets and within especially China, India and Brazil. And unless the allocations to emerging markets start to change drastically, I don't think these flows would emerge quite quickly. Hence it gives us a lot more confidence that this is not a frothy bubble in a capital that we are seeing coming in.

Now is there an element of that money? There is always going to be a percentage of that kind of money that likely to take advantage of momentum but we are a little more comfortable that this is not the hot money that may move out as quickly as it is coming in.

Continued on next page...

  

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