Check out: Tulsian's views on ADAG, sugar stocks,ONGC

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SP Tulsian, sptulsian.com in an interview to CNBC-TV18 gave his reading and outlook on ADAG and sugar stocks.

He said, "There has been lot of margin selling seen in case of Reliance Infra and Reliance Capital . Once that tapers off then renewed buying will come in. In case of Reliance Comm , until you have confirned news about the tower deal, shares really cannot move. But overall, I don't think that there will be any comfort on a fundamental basis on all these stocks."

He has negative view on UP based sugar mills like Dwarikesh , Bajaj Hindusthan and Simbhaoli Sugar because they are not left with and inventory to liquidate. However, he has a positive view on  Renuka .

Below is the edited transcript of his interview. Also watch the accompanying videos.

On ADAG stocks

I have a doubt on the valuation of USD 5.2 billion because the company has given a mandate to UBS asking for a valuation of USD 5 billion for 95% stake. That translates into Rs 45 lakh plus for each tower and if you see the tenancy ratio of 1:2 and the quality of tenants on these towers.

Idea is also looking for a valuation of anywhere between Rs 40-Rs 45 lakh per tower. Any valuations above Rs 36-40 lakh looks little bit stretched. This could just be termed as a bit on the higher side more as a seller's valuation, but buyer may not agree to have more than USD 4-4.5 billion.

There has been lot of margin selling seen in case of Reliance Infra and Reliance Capital because of the liquidations having taken place and the losses incurred by the High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs) in some other counters on their Future and Option positions. Once that tapers off then renewed buying will come in. There are many other such stocks, which have corrected more than what they deserve.

But overall, I don't think that there will be any comfort on a fundamental basis on all these stocks. In case of Reliance Comm, until you have a confirned news that deal has happened at USD 4.5 or USD 5 billion, the shares really cannot move. All these things are seen as a technical bump largely because of the margin selling tapering off or due to short covering at a lower levels.

On Sugar stocks

The moment we see global prices of sugar rising, we see reaction coming in. But sometimes I have to reconcile if that news can be applied to all the sugar companies who have their operations confined only in India. The moment 5 lakh tonne of extra exports was released, we saw a premium of Rs 6 per kg.

This means that global prices are high, but none of these mills will be able to take advantage because there is a Chinese wall between the pricing prevailing in India and abroad. Except for Renuka nobody can take advantage of it. The Tamil Nadu based sugar mills like Sakthi Sugars , EID Parry amy also be able to effect exports.But the kind of entitlement they will be buying they have to pay a price of Rs 6- Rs 6.5 per kg.

They will have to buy the licenses and then they export the commodity. They will make a profit of Rs 1.-1.5 only on that export quantity. Except for Renuka, I don't see any reason to take a positive view.

I have negative view on some of the UP based sugar mills like Dwarikesh, Bajaj Hindusthan and Simbhaoli Sugar because they are not left with any inventory to get liquidate. All these things are seen as a technical bounce, which again doesn't have any meaning if you have consistent negative view on a fundamental basis over next three months.

On ONGC

I don't think gas price decontrol is likely. This is because the EGoM, has set the price for five years, which is expiring on March 31, 2014. I don't think that that is possible. Even if we presume that happening then, there is a logical reason for all other user industries to correct. For fertilisers there maybe administered or fixed price. The share price of ONGC is at Rs 280-Rs 285. One cannot expect the price to move beyond Rs 300 under any circumstances.

If the government succeeds to come up with the FPO at Rs 250, then that will be very good level for them to realise that kind of price. Government should be or will be considering this seriously. As ONGC chairman said, in the month end, they will be deliberating on the RHP, so that it can be filed to the SEBI. There are chances of FPO hitting in the month of September of ONGC. This will really be positive for the company and the government should be able to realise at Rs 250.

For Reliance Industries , the base has been taken at Rs 750, but in the process of volatility you do get to see a price of Rs 710-715-720, which doesn't remains sustained for a very long time. That has more to do with the short covering and no incentive for the share to get sorted at Rs 720-725 levels. I will take this as more of short covering and as value buying at the lower level. But I am not subscribing to the theory of gas price getting decontrolled by government.

On Alok Industries , S Kumars

I am not very comfortable with Alok beyond Rs 20 because of the concerns largely of the debt remaining with the company. But with the kind of beating seen in these stock, it has all the reason to move back to Rs 20. I am positive on S Kumar because I see it being the victim of the pledged shares sell.

Short Covering or value buying?

Stocks like Renuka, Punj Lloyd , IVRCL have seen a mix of both short covering and value buying. For Renuka a price of Rs 50 is not justified, so it is partly both. Same is the thing with Suzlon because I have been maintaining positive view on that. I may not hold that view with Punj Lloyd. Punj Lloyd would be a case of pure short covering.

For IVRCL also it is a case of a short covering rather than fresh buying. This is because if that would have happened for Punj Lloyd and IVRCL then value buying would have been seen in other infra stocks, which has not happened.