Cautious on HPCL, BPCL and IOC: SP Tulsian

Published on Wed, Dec 14, 2011 at 17:07 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, Dec 14, 2011 at 19:39  

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SP Tulsian, sptulsian.com

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SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com is cautious on HPCL , BPCL and IOC . "At the end of the fourth quarter, we generally see the total under-recovery getting supported or replenished by the government. But I don't think that this time it is likely to happen. So, overall there is precarious position on all three oil marketing companies," he explains.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Tulsian says, earnings per share (EPS) for HPCL, BPCL would be anywhere between Rs 40-45. "For IOC, it will be Rs 25-30," he adds.

Also read: Oil cos seek Rs 50,000 cr from govt towards under recovery

Below is the edited transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What's your view on Orchid Chemicals now?

A: I don't think that there is any problem, except for the forex losses or mark-to-market provisions that we are going to see in quarter three. I don't think that there are any concerns with the business model.

I think the whole concern is with the forex losses. I don't think we are going to see any relief in rupee even till March. I don't have any concerns on the business model. But, one should be very careful.

Q: Textile companies, is there anything that you are spotting in the midcap space?

A: There was an article or report, couple of days back, that about Rs 100,000 crore Indian banks exposure to textile sector is in a big soup. The textile sector is asking for the reschedulement.

When you talk with the textile exporters, they say that the foreign buyers are quite smart. They make backward calculations, taking into consideration the currency benefits.

In Arvind Textile , you can try to play on the trading bumps or maybe the trading volatility in the range of 15-20%. But inspite of a huge rupee weakness, I won't be seeing any positive flowing in to the textile sector.

Q: Is there anything happening at all in Triveni Engineering ? Do you look at the stock at all?

A: Having bottomed out at about Rs 13.50, now it is ruling in a range of about Rs 14-15. A lot of destruction has happened since the company announced its Q4 results.

Since the crushing has started in the UP, probably it is finding some supports at the lower level. But taking a general call on the sugar industry and having presence in the UP based sugar mill, I am not holding very positive view.

Q: Is there any buzz on Unichem Laboratories ?

A: No idea. There maybe some corporate actions happening either in respect to the division sale or something like that. Unichem and JB Chemical are the similar kind of pharmaceutical stocks which generally remains quite subdued.

Q: If oil prices continue to increase and the rupee continues to depreciate, what kind of an effect do you see on the stocks and on the business of some of these companies?

A: Earnings per share (EPS) for HPCL, BPCL would be anywhere between Rs 40-45. For IOC, it will be Rs 25-30. At the end of the fourth quarter, we generally see the total under-recovery getting supported or replenished by the government. But I don't think that this time it is likely to happen. So, overall there is precarious position on all three oil marketing companies.

  

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