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Published on Mon, Jan 29, 2007 at 12:00 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Wed, Jan 31, 2007 at 11:11  

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Alok Agarwal , Motilal Oswal

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S Ranganathan of LKP Shares and Alok Agarwal of Motilal Oswal Securities give their take on stocks based on their earnings performance.

According to Agarwal, the tyre companies - MRF, Ceat and Apollo Tyres have done well and the numbers have beaten their expectations by a wide margin.

Ranganathan says that Moser Baer has met up with expectations of investors, thanks to very good realizations from the optical media business.

On the other hand, Ranganthan believes that there is no respite for sugar companies in the short term. However, in the long term, he is of the opinion that  one can look at some of the sugar stocks during the correction, provided they are fairly integrated and have a integrated business model.

Excerpts from CNBC - TV18's exclusive interview with S Ranganathan and Alok Agarwal:

Q: You were happy with all the tyre results - MRF , Ceat and Apollo Tyres ?

Agarwal: All the three companies have done very well. Infact, the actual numbers have beaten our expectations by a wide margin. The EBITDA margins are much better than what we had expected and they have saved on interest cost.

Therefore, PAT of course is much better than our expectations. What has happened is that the lower rubber prices have impacted their operations very favourably in this quarter. So all the three companies have done very well.

Q: Which is your top pick from the three?

Agarwal: We have a buy on Apollo and MRF. We have given a book profit call on Ceat because our target price there is in place. We are looking at a target price of Rs 480 for Apollo. For MRF, we are looking at a target price of Rs 6050.

Rubber prices now are not as low as they were in the last quarter. So we believe that the tyre companies should raise prices going forward. Keeping that in mind, hoping that they do it, we maintain a buy call on these two stocks.

Q: Did you like Moser Baer 's numbers?

Ranganathan: Moser Baer has met up with expectations of investors, thanks to very good realizations from the optical media business. Margins have been fairly robust and they have met up with our expectations.

We would like to watch how the other businesses pan out in terms of the entertainment business - where they intend to acquire certain titles starting with southern-based titles in the first phase. Of course, the photovoltaic business how it pans out during the next two quarters.

Q: Sugar results were disappointing. But when you looked at Shree Renuka and EID Parry numbers, do you have any sense of when things could start turning around or will the next 2-3 quarters be as weak?

Ranganathan: Considering the situation that sugar prices have been extremely soft during most part of the quarter and the fact that the raw material cost has gone up substantially for the sugar mills, and considering the fact that this year, the crop is going to be good, the situation continues to look grim atleast for the next one or two quarters.

But over the longer term, our sense is that one can look at some of these sugar stocks during the correction that they will undergo in the next couple of quarters, provided they are fairly integrated and have a integrated business model. But for the short term, we don't see any respite for sugar companies.

Q: Man Industries is the other set of numbers that you have liked. What sort of price target and earnings have you set out on it now?

Agarwal: Earlier, the price target was Rs 320. This was based on FY08 expected EPS of Rs 32. So we haven't changed that. Man Industries' numbers were in line with expectations. But Man Industries has announced another FCCB issue going forward. So we will have to watch that carefully; what kind of price they get and what is the dilution that happens there. We are happy with what they have done in this quarter atleast.

Q: You didn't think much of Novartis numbers?

Ranganathan: In case of Novartis, there was this property's sale during the previous year for about Rs 17 crore. When you consider that the results have not been extremely bad as it appears to be. But when you consider the fact that the company has been downplaying on the generics business, where due to poor margins they are not really participating in some of the tender business, it is the OTC business, which is doing well.

The main point here is that considering the way the domestic market is panning out for the pharma industry, markets are not really too excited about the company going forward. So that is why the company has been languishing.

Q: Is Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers  a hit for you?

Agarwal: TNPL is a sure hit. TNPL has done very well. Its topline has beaten our expectations. EBITDA margins is slightly below our expectations but Q3 is usually the worst of all the four quarters. But they have done well on interest. So overall PAT has beaten our expectations by almost 30%.

Paper is one sector, which has been performing well. TNPL also looks good. We can look for more price hikes. They are having a price hike from January 1st, which means that this March quarter also should be good for TNPL. So we have a buy and we maintain a buy on this stock.

Q: Disclosures

Agarwal: I personally hold Man Industries.

Ranganathan: We and our clients could have a beneficial interest in most of the stocks that we have discussed.

  

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