Which stocks/sector are experts betting big on?

Published on Thu, Dec 30, 2010 at 14:09 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Thu, Dec 30, 2010 at 15:07  

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Jigar Shah, senior vice president and HOR , Kimeng Securities India

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Fundamental analyst Jigar Shah, senior vice president and HOR at Kimeng Securities India and technical analyst Abhijit Paul of BRICS Securities, in an interview with CNBC-TV18's Reema Tendulkar and Ekta Batra gave their views on select stocks/sectors which an investor should look at.

The stocks/sectors in focus are HUL , oil marketing companies, Bharti Airtel , Sterlite , Axis Bank and HCC .

Here are their expert views:

On HUL

Paul is bullish on HUL and urges the investor to hold onto it. He says, "Apart from the fact that HUL has some excellent long-term charts, the stock is also up close to 4-4.5% this month as well. I expect the stock to gain in the range of 20-25% in a six-eight month timeframe from hereon." If an investor can hold onto the stock for more than six months plus he suggests that he should do so as he sees the stock trending further up.

On Oil Marketing Companies

Given the inflation scenario at the moment and the kind of headwind that the government has faced, Shah thinks it will be very difficult for them to do a complete deregulation although it is suffering. "I guess politically it would be a very incorrect decision on their part. Some increase will certainly take place. As far as crude oil is concerned, it certainly should remain above the average price of 2010 and should be in the range of USD 85-90 at least, if not more. Depending on the global economic scenario, it could even inch higher." After almost two-and-half-three years of downtrend after touching its peak, he sees oil coming back. "Even though it has been lagging a lot of other commodities such as metals, rise in oil seems a more probability than a fall from current levels in 2011," he predicts.

On Bharti Airtel

Shah has a buy call on Bharti at current levels with a target of Rs 400 which is roughly 15% higher from the current levels as he believes that the pricing pressure on Bharti, Vodafone and the incumbents is easing. "They will gain from the recent setback to the new telecoms so it should be very positive going forward. I would be surprised if in the coming quarters they do not produce a quarter on quarter improvement. We expect growth to return, aided by the volume growth as well as due to the easing of pricing pressure in India and the turnaround of Zain in Africa. I must add over here that we are underweight on the telecom sector though but Bharti remains an exception."
Abhijit on Bharti

Even though Bharti has not actually done much this year, it's up 7% so far, Paul agrees with Shah. He adds, "The good thing is the stock is pretty good in a short-term uptrend. My only worry is the fact that Rs 370-375 wall that it faces every time it hits that range. Once it takes that out, the next level for Bharti is in the range of Rs 395-400 and if the investor has a timeframe of six months, it's a buy."

On Sterlite

Shah is bullish on non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc and aluminum says Sterlite has it all. "We are quite positive despite some of the setbacks that the company had both in its aluminum business as well as in the copper business, due to environmental reasons. However, we still expect a very robust earnings growth in the current year and the next year and our sum-of-the-parts target price works out to Rs 216 which has a decent upside from the current level. If the crisis revolving around the projects in the company is sorted out, the stock has a further upside potential compared to our target price. Also, if the Sterlite Energy IPO hits the market somewhere in the next quarter, then again the stock has a very good upside."

On Axis Bank

Paul says, "If an investor has a timeframe of one year, it doesn't make sense to hold it for long. I would probably take my timeframe down to probably three-months. In terms of levels, Rs 1,430-1,450 is where the stock has some amount of supply in it. At current price, it is tricky as it is within a 10-12 days range. Once it breaks above that range above Rs 1,325, I can expect a 100-150 points move for the stock. I would probably get out in that move, probably close to the Rs 1,430-1,450 range and get into something like an HUL or a Hindalco."

On HCC

Shah's rating on HCC is a sell. He finds that quite a few companies in this sector have performed better and are more careful in terms of losing money over projects. "There is the whole episode of Lavasa," he says, "Overall we have a preference for companies like IL&FS Transportation or JP Associates in the sector. For HCC, the valuation or the growth in the overall perception depends upon the success of Lavasa. There is a temporary issue at the moment going on over there and whether the IPO happens or not, we feel that the core business is not very convincing for HCC. We would rather prefer to maintain a sell rating and advice the investor to look at some other stocks within the sector or outside that."

  

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