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What are Ashish Chugh's hidden gems for Nov?
Published on Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 12:30   |  Updated at Tue, Nov 10, 2009 at 15:34  |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Ashish Chugh, Investment Analyst is bullish on Nahar Capital. He feels the stock has potential to double from current levels.

Chugh is also upbeat on Kohinoor Foods. “The stock is available at reasonable valuations. Also, the downside is restricted even if market falls.”
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Ashish Chugh on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video


Q: Why do you like Nahar Capital and what’s fair value for this story?

A: Nahar Capital is a company belonging to the Ludhiana-based Nahar Group. This company was incorporated for the purpose of taking over the investments of Nahar Spinning pursuant to a scheme of arrangement, which happened in 2006. This company holds investments not just in the group companies but also has fairly large portfolio of other investments. If you look at the financials of the company, the equity capital of the company is about Rs 8.37 crore, book value is about Rs 250 and the market cap at the current price is close to Rs 80 crore.

If you look at the value of investments as on 31 March, 2009, this company was holding a total of Rs 218 crore of quoted investments, out of which, investments in the group companies accounted for about Rs 55 crore and balance Rs 163 crore was the portfolio of other investments.

At the current market price Rs 55 crore of investment in group companies has gone up to about Rs 130 crore. The various indices have gone up about 70% since 31 March.

If we try to be slightly conservative and assume that their portfolio of investment has only gone up by 40%, this would result in an investment portfolio of about Rs 220 crore for non-group investments.

The total equity investments or the quoted investments as on date is valued at close to Rs 350 crore and besides the quoted investment this company has got about Rs 10 crore in unquoted securities, out of which Rs 5 crore is in the equity of Delhi Stock Exchange Ltd.

Delhi Stock Exchange Ltd is also expected to start operations in the next couple of months. I believe once it starts operations, the valuation of this investment will go up. Beside this they have cash and bank balance of about Rs 44 crore.

All in all, this company has got investments and cash of close to 400 crore at the current market price. Marketcap of the company is just about Rs 80 crore, which means about 20% of the total value of investment. If you look at the holding companies, these companies generally command about 40-70% of the value of investments in the group companies.

In case of Nahar Capital the group portfolio only accounts for roughly third of the total investment, it is only about Rs 130 crore out of Rs 400 crore of total investments, which it owns. But if again we try to be conservative and assume that it will have a 40% of the total value of investment. The stock has a potential to go up by about 75-100% from these levels.

Q: What you like in Kohinoor Foods?

A: This is a stock which has been battered down a lot primarily because of the offloading of shares by Temptation Foods. The stock trades very close to its 52-week low of about Rs 41. This company besides rice is also into ready-to-eat foods. The company has got two manufacturing plants. The rice milling plant is located at Murthal, which is on the outskirts of Delhi, and the ready-to-eat plant is also located close to Murthal at a place called Bahalgarh, which is again on the outskirts of Delhi.

The plant at Murthal is suppose to be one of the largest in the country and it is spread over an area of about 36 acres and has a capacity to process about 50 metric tonne of rice per hour.

The plant at Bahalgarh, which is ready-to-eat food plant, can do about 50,000 packs of ready-to-eat foods per day and about 20 metric tonne of frozen food per day.

If you look at the brand Kohinoor is well-established in fact few years back it was selected as a super brand and it is probably the only rice brand in the country to be selected as super brand.

This company has got an excellent distribution network. They have close to 150 distributors, 600 stockiest and the product is sold at over 2.5 lakh retail outlets. Besides this, this company has got distribution network in place in more than 47 countries.

If you look at the financials of the company, first half of the current financial year sales are up by about 25% to Rs 350 crore, profit after tax (PAT) is up by about 80% to about Rs 10 crore. Management in a recent interview to a leading newspaper talked about achieving sales of about Rs 1,000 crore in the current financial year. Stock is trading at about Rs 47 at a market cap of just about Rs 130 crore.

To summarise, you have a company, which has got a strong brand. It is available very close to its 52-week low of about Rs 41 and significant discount to the price at which promoters increase their stake in the month of February. In fact, promoters increase their stake at a price of Rs 78, stock is available at Rs 47-48 and I think the 52-week high for the stock is Rs 115.

So it trades at a substantial discount to its 52-week high. Numbers – quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) have been quite good and I think the potential of the segment in which the company operates ready-to-eat food as well as rice, they are all driven by India’s domestic consumption story. So you have a company, which is trading at very sensible valuations and the product have got good potential and the downside looks restricted from the levels of Rs 47-48.   

Disclosure:

I have investments in both the stocks discussed.

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