Tulsian sees value unlocking post- Vedanta restructuringPublished on Tue, Sep 09, 2008 at 14:55 | Source : CNBC-TV18 Updated at Wed, Sep 10, 2008 at 15:28
Vedanta Resources will demerge the alumina and energy business of Sterlite Industries . The company has announced a USD 9.8 billion aluminium capex programme and aims to raise aluminium smelting capacity by 2.6 million tonne per annum by 2012.
According to Tulsian, the group has presence is into copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and ferrous metals. "So; each company is focused on one metal." Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with SP Tulsian: Q: The Sterlite stock still remains under pressure. Is that a cause for concern? A: There is no real concern on that account. One cannot take any share price as base to calculate forward valuation because some projects are being hived off now. Sterlite's 51% holding in Balco, or Bharat Aluminum Company, has been removed and put into the Malco, or Madras Aluminium Company, basket. At present, many analysts and investors were confused. Sterlite is now purely a copper company. The company has 65% holding in Hindustan Zinc and 51% in Balco. They are also in the process of creating power generation capacity of 10,000 mw. Malco will be focusing purely on aluminium and power generation. If given a choice between Hindalco and Malco, I would choose a focused metal company. The group has presence is into copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and ferrous metals. So; each company is focused on one metal. That clarity will be very attractive. The pricing of Malco was on the lower side which is quite surprising. It has a low equity base with 80% stake held by promoters. Institutional investors hold 10-20%. The balance is held by the state investment body. There is no floating stock, so there was no reason for the stock to react negatively to the swap ratio. The transfer of Balco's 2.5 lakh tonne per annum capacity to Madras Aluminum, which stands at 40,000 tonne, is also very positive. From a shareholder perspective, the move is positive for both Sterlite and Malco. Now, one will have clarity. This share swap ratio has been worked out considering the present market price.
Q: Would Sterlite Aluminium look more attractive going forward as a stock because it has a power unit and is also expanding more? A: Yes. Sterlite Aluminium, which is the present Malco, will have a capacity of close to 1.5 million tonne of aluminium. By 2012, they will have a metal capacity of 12.5 million tonne metal capacity, apart from the about 11,000 mw of power. Bauxite is one of the two principal materials required for the production of aluminium. If a company has captive source of power, I don't think they will have any problem. The cost of production shouldn't exceed USD 1,000 per ton. I don't see prices of aluminium falling below USD 2,500 per tonne on the LME, or London Metal Exchange. Based on these projections, Sterlite Aluminium will be the right script to choose.
Q: A brokerage has put out a report with a sell call on Sterlite, if there is further negative news, as the profitable aluminum business is getting transferred. Would you share that kind of view and is a switch from Sterlite warranted? A: No. Sterlite still holds 65% in Hindustan Zinc, which has a profit of about Rs 1,000 crore per quarter. This means they are making a profit of close to Rs 4,000 crore, or a billion dollars, per year. This translates into an EPS of about Rs 100. Zinc prices fell about one-and-a-half year back. From a high of USD 4,800 per tonne, it is now trading at around USD 1,800 per tonne. Since then, they have ramped up capacity from 1.8 lakh tonne to 7.2 lakh tonne at present. The increase in production has helped them maintain profitability to a great extent. The estimated EPS of Hindustan Zinc for FY09, even at a reduced realization of USD 1,800 per tonne, will be about Rs 19-20 per share. 65% stake in HZL is held by Sterlite industries. So, it is wrong to say that the bottomline constituent of Sterlite industries is coming from Hindustan Zinc. I don't think Balco's contribution to the bottomline of Sterlite industries is more than Rs 500 crore gross. It is wrong to presume that a profitable asset has been hived off by Sterlite Industries.
Q: Does this change Vedanta's control over Sterlite or Malco in terms of percentage shareholding? Q: Will you give some value to Sterlite Aluminium for holding 15% stake in Vedanta Aluminium? Probably, the Left was a big hurdle in transferring the state government stake, in spite of a clear shareholder agreement. But the matter is subjudice. Q: What would be the right way to trade Malco? It is not right to take an investment call for Malco because one needs to assign a value. This is a good move of rationalisation of each metal with each company. Earlier, there was an overlap because of inter-investments or inter-ownerships.
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