Raamdeo Agrawal says fraud could be to tune of Rs 7k crPublished on Wed, Jan 07, 2009 at 16:21 | Source : CNBC-TV18 Updated at Thu, Jan 08, 2009 at 18:31
"If you do the numbers the total gross overstatement of profitability or reserved numbers is about Rs 7,000 crore, that's what they have admitted in the four items if they are added up." Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Raamdeo Agrawal on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Satyam was talking about operating margins of just 3% what do you think was happening, as to what has been reported on the press release? A: If you do the numbers the total gross overstatement of profitability or reserved numbers is about Rs 7,000 crore, that's what they have admitted in the four items if they are added up. The balance sheet is inflated, the P&L and share holders net worth is inflated by Rs 7,000 crore. It means that in last four to seven years, the company has not made any net profits, all [earlier reported numbers] are spooked-up numbers. The cost of entire operation or the realizations which you have and I am sure the per hour realization where you have the gaps between 10-15% gaps as to what Satyam would have realized and what Infosys would be realized and the cost of operations for Satyam would be significantly higher than that of Infosys' of the world. So, there would be a clear gap in the operating margins, so when the numbers were cooked you were not able to figure out how much discount to give to Satyam's numbers but 3% clearly is absolutely shocking. I was asking my analysts, out of USD 2 billion, more than USD 1 billion is offshore revenue which has about 40-45% kind of an EBDITA margins. There is some kind of meat in the business and what is most important today is instead of trying to figure out how much is the fraud etc, the most important thing is to really save the client's interest right now and the government should do anything to see that the client's interest is taken care of and above all that is the most important thing right now.
Q: Many stocks such as JP Associates, IVRCL etc down between 20-25% apiece, do you think this is a legitimate fear that the market has clearly reflected on the screen that the numbers of some other companies might have an element of falsehood about them? A: Fear has no boundaries anybody who had stocks which had risen or which they aren't able to understand, the whole problem today is that of understanding, the numbers behind the balance sheet and profit and loss accounts. Wherever people are uncomfortable with the numbers, they can only vote with buying or selling and they are just selling wherever the confidence is less than 100% and wherever the confidence is high the market is rewarding them by outperformance because there is no event bigger than this today. So, outperformance and underperformance clearly tells which are the companies which and where the investor confidence is higher than normal and where the investor confidence is very shaky in those accounts and I think those companies should notice of this particular fact today.
Q: How does this rework your entire earnings target and Sensex EPS and what you would have to rework now? A: Particularly after this event my sense is that much better disclosures will come through because the auditors who go for limited review of the numbers, they would be far stricter and management would not spare even casually in terms of declaration. So my sense is that this quarter had trouble of inventory adjustments, forex losses and drop in volumes. The earlier context of high raw material costs and low selling prices all kinds of problems were there in this quarter and if any corporate was planning to think of spilling over problems in the next quarter or for a smooth adjustment and all and there will be some kind of a rethinking and maybe they might come out with a full declaration this quarter itself. Where we are saying a 7-8% drop in the net profit, it could be a little higher, so there will be definitely some impact in the quarterly results of this quarter. Q: Would you want a separate team to take charge of Satyam right now if you had any illusions about or any hopes of resurrecting the stock or would you accept Ram Mynampati's legitimates as a CEO? A: Clearly very credible and unquestionable leader his current or past from outside the system, nothing to do with the drawing salary now from Satyam's system should come over like Solomon Brothers had problems in 80s and 90s in the Q: Do you think Satyam's business is worth Rs 39 per share, because sometimes these kind of falls trigger off opportunities, its happened in the West where something falls from 10-20 and then 2-4 and you double your money in a week's time, do you sense any such opportunity here or at best to stay away? A: Opportunities are clearly there but one good thing is that even if after you rework the number there is no loans in the balance sheet, so it's operating on its own cash flow or whatever infrastructure they have. It's a fully funded balance sheet and if we go by their quarterly numbers of Rs 2100 crore of last quarter which they have restated now they have about Rs 8-8,500 crore kind of gross revenue and now I don't know what is going to happen to the profitability but people will tell me that about USD 1 to USD 1.2 billion is the offshore revenue which clearly must be having at least 40% of EBDITA. They have nice piece of business out there I am not an expert to understand but that business is not a business which you can take for granted unless you manage the confident of the clients very well immediately. I think this business can disintegrate in the next 12-18 months whenever it winds down quickly. So, what is important for anybody is to get a leadership which starts building up confidence of not only the clients but also the investors and regulators because regulators also need an independent guy who can provide the investigative forces, all the possible documents etc. Also read: Raju admits fraud; Satyam books inflated of Rs 5040cr Consulting stock exchanges to decide course of action: Sebi Satyam: Infy says outsourcing may be hit See Satyam stock at Rs 10: Shankar Sharma Outraged auditors see action from regulators ahead Min of Corp Affairs seeks registrar's report on Satyam LIC still confident about Satyam's potential as a Co FICCI, Nasscom call for revamp of corp governance norms B Ramalinga Raju's letter to Board Satyam: A cleverly crafted scam, says Udayan Together we emerge strong: Interim Satyam CEO to employees
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