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Nifty touches 5000: What are experts expecting now?
The Nifty hit the 5,000 mark for the first time since May 23, 2008 on the back of good global cues. The US and Asian markets have been on an uptrend and the bulls seem to be raging at the moment. Will this trend continue or will the upsurge see a sudden downward correction?
What clearly stands out is the fact that this rally has been led by autos and the last three times big performers like Suzlon and Unitech have underperformed despite the fact that Unitech has become a 3 or 4 bagger in recent times.
Hero Honda from September 2007 is up 126% and even from May levels it up 111%. That's really been the stock which was flared up. Maruti too is up 55% from September and 92% from May. Jindal Steel and Power Limited - a recent entry into the Nifty. Oil marketing companies which were forgotten in the heydays of 2007 have made a comeback in 2009. So you have a BPCL up 55% from September and 57% from May.
The underperformers Suzlon - a stock which that performed well in 2007 has actually lost 67% both from September levels and from May levels. Unitech has lost 64% from September and from 58% May and remember, Unitech has already gone up three times in this rally. So it is quite interesting.
ADAG pack which represented momentum in 2007 is clearly one of the biggest losers - Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital are stocks where we haven't seen those levels coming in and in fact it should be sometime before we see those levels.
A couple of sectors which have seen interesting trends cement for one like Grasim and ACC which are down from their 2007 peak that was led by commodities but up from May 2008 levels. On the other hand you have a Cairn which is actually up 53% from September but if you go back to May 2008 when the markets were going down at that time it had made a life high. From those levels it is actually down 12%.