Nifty target at 5500 on breakout above 5100: Daryl Guppy

Published on Thu, Nov 19, 2009 at 12:00 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Thu, Nov 19, 2009 at 13:44  

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Daryl Guppy, Founder and Director, guppytraders.com

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Q: If the Nifty does break above 5,100 kinds of levels, where would you set the next target there?

A: The next target with the Nifty is 5,500. That means that it has developed a consolidation trading band. So we looked at that retreat to develop. Technically, that retreat was the end of trend but instead developed a small consolidation band between about 4,700 and 5,100. So a breakout above 5,100 gives us an upside target of around 5,500.

Q: In case it does not manage to take out 5,100 in the near-term - where would be the retracement targets?

A: Retracement target if it doesn't take out 5,100 is around 4,700. So what we look for is rally and retreat behaviour. So this is a sideways consolidation in time in terms of a trend correction.

Q: What do you see on the charts of the Shanghai Composite now? That has been the more resilient Asian market.

A: The Shanghai Composite has a much stronger trend development than we are seeing elsewhere in Asia or America. The Shanghai market has first of all a cup pattern that developed around 3,000 then a handle and now we have the strong breakout from that handle pattern that sets up upside target for around 3,400. That will probably be achieved in the next week or two. Beyond 3,400, we are looking at 4,200 target - perhaps near the Chinese New Year, about the middle of February 2010.

Q: Your year end target ie December-end target for the S&P and the Dow?

A: The long-term target for the Dow is 11,600 but there is some pretty strong resistance sitting at around 11,200. This is still a rally. I am not having a Christmas target, my Christmas present comes from the profits I take from these short-term rally behaviours.

Q: What about gold technically?

A: Technically, gold has developed a parabolic trend. The important feature with parabolic trends is that they end very rapidly. If you remember, the oil market going towards USD 140 per barrel - that was a parabolic trend. When that trend collapses, it collapses very rapidly.

So that means if you are trading in gold, as soon as gold starts to sell off, we need to get out of the market. Upside targets are around USD 1,160 per ounce beyond that we are looking at a target at around USD 1,240 per ounce. If you are trading gold stocks, when gold starts to sell off, you need to get out of the gold stocks very rapidly.

  

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