Nifty may see 4100 in coming months: Antique Stock Broking

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Nifty may see 4100 in coming months: Antique Stock Broking

Since the beginning of this year, most of the experts believe that 2012 will be better than 2011. However, Shruti Vora of Antique Stock Broking has a different opinion. According to her, the Nifty can move towards 4,100-4,300 mark over the coming months.

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Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » ALSO READ See what other experts are saying about markets See what FIIs are saying about the markets See what Udayan Mukherjee is saying about the markets Shree Renuka BSE | NSE 24/05/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Shree Renuka? Other Stocks in this news Bajaj Hindusthan | ICICI Bank | State Bank of India | Punjab National Bank | Kotak Mahindra Bank | IndusInd Bank | Tata Consultancy Services | Infosys | Wipro |

Since the beginning of this year, most of the experts believe that 2012 will be better than 2011. However, Shruti Vora of Antique Stock Broking has a different opinion. "My sense is that this year may not be any different," she says.

According to her, the Nifty can move towards 4,100-4,300 mark over the coming months.

Also read: Don't trade Nifty until it breaks out, says Sudarshan Sukhani

Below is the edited transcript of her interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: What is your trading call on the index today?

A: Although we continue to hover closer to the critical 4,650-4,700 mark, the cause of concern for me has been the December monthly closing which is also marked by the quarterly and yearly close.

If you check the yearly close for 2011, it has been about 50 points lower than 2010. Historically, we have seen that each time you have seen the yearly close below previous year's closing, the concluding year has been negative one. So that has been the cause of concern.

Also, the quarterly close has been red inverted hammer. You have seen volumes declining in the last two years. Historically, January has been a month of negative returns maybe seven out of the last nine years.

With the way we have closed in the month of December, my sense is that this year may not be any different. Possibly January could see some positivity building in where you could see some 4,800-4,900 levels being tested.

However, I do think that the closing that we have seen, below the 4,650 level, in the month of December could see this downtrend resulting towards 4,100-4,300 mark over the coming months.

Q: What is your trading strategy on Shree Renuka and Bajaj Hindusthan ?

A: The volume breakout has occurred in anticipation of the positive news. Both the stocks have bounced back from an oversold territory. I think for Shree Renuka and Bajaj Hindusthan you could see Rs 35 target on each. So, somebody who is sitting with a long position should certainly hold, but possibly get out once at about Rs 35 from a trading perspective.

Q: How are the banks looking now technically in terms of the Bank Nifty or any of the leading banks?

A: The Bank Nifty has taken a fair amount of support at 8,000. Although the Nifty broke the 4,650 mark in the month of December, the Bank Nifty was the only sector along with capital goods possibly which were showing more stable outlook.

We have seen about 400-500 point rally already on that. But my sense is that as long as Bank Nifty holds above the 8,000 level, there is some sanity in that sector as compared to the other sectors.

If you look at it individually then the public sector banks looks slightly better than the private sector banks. I would say that ICICI Bank at Rs 700, SBI at Rs 1,600 are possibly most stable along with PNB as compared to Kotak or IndusInd Bank , which are trading sells at current levels.