May 07, 2012, 02.56 PM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18

Monday blues or 'make money' Monday?

Nilesh Shah of Axis Direct sees attractive opportunities emerging from the current market turbulence.

Nilesh Shah of Axis Direct sees attractive opportunities emerging from the current market turbulence. The BSE Sensex dropped more than 1% on Monday, as global risk assets sold off after elections in Greece and France fuelled questions on their austerity policies.

The weaker rupee and uncertainty in a day when the Finance Bill containing the controversial provisions is set to be introduced to the parliament also weighed.

The main BSE index fell 1.5% to 16,588.32 points, while the Nifty fell 1.5% to 5,009.90 points.

"Today, there will be some amount of resolution expected by the market and hopefully that will set the trend for positiveness to emerge over next couple of weeks," Shah told CNBC-TV18.

Meanwhile, the rupee opened lower as global risk off sentiment trumped the central bank's move to ease forex inflows into the country.

The RBI announced late on Friday measures to bolster foreign currency inflows following a sharp fall in the rupee.

According to Shah, currently, it is sentiment driving the rupee rather than the actual outflows. However, he says there are a few things turning positive for the local currency. First of which is the oil price correction. Second, the gold imports have started slowing down.

In the month of April, India imported about 35 tonne of gold compared to last year's about 90 tonnes. "If there is a drop in oil prices and it kind of supports by drop in gold import then certainly the deficit numbers will start looking far better and hopefully that will give respite to rupee," Shah believes.

The other thing which is important is the undervaluation of rupee on a real effective exchange rate basis. Depending upon different models, that ranges from 6-12%, and at such kind of undervaluation chances of rupee appreciating over medium-term is fairly bright, Shah highlights.

Shah sees a phase of risk-off emerging in global markets again.

After April's weak US jobs report, investors will scrutinize each piece of economic data for a read on whether the economy's soft patch is temporary or the start of something more troubling. Shah does not see growth in US and Europe reviving significantly any time soon.

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