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Ashok Wadhwa, Partner & CEO, Ambit Corp Finance said that the current low volumes indicate that the market may not move sharply. However, he feels that the market sentiment in India has improved due to the fall in crude prices. But the weak US financial environment will weigh on the market sentiment, he added.
Wadhwa sees potential for more than three telecom leaders in the current environment. He sees at least one more consolidation in the sector in the time to come. On the QIP (qualified institutional placement) issue, he feels that the change in norms has brought more parity to pricing of issues. However he feels that the question is what happens if an open offer is triggered via a QIP.
According to Wadhwa, the oil industry is going through a difficult phase but the government cannot allow free pricing, he said. He is not sure what the solution could be. The problem is not easy to resolve, he said.
Mitesh Thakkar, Edelweiss Capital feels that the market has lost its momentum. It is likely to be range-bound, he said. He sees Nifty support at 4300 and its resistance at 4600 levels. Thakkar too feels that the volumes in the market will be lower and that the action is likely to be stock specific.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with Ashok Wadwa and Mitesh Thakkar:
Q: How is it looking technically for the Nifty right now, you think we will continue to be in a range for the near-term?
Thakkar: After going up from 3,800 levels to 4,650 levels, I think the market has lost momentum. So we are probably entering a broad consolidation phase, which might last for one to two weeks or so and 4,320-4,300 would be very good support upside. 4,600-4,650 will be the key supply areas. This phase will be characterized by lot of volumes, lack of big participation from index derivatives stuff like that. So I think it will be much more stocks specific trading market.
Q: What is your call on the market because it seems to be stuck in some sort of a range and the kind of low turnover that we have been seeing day in and day out complete lack of participation at least from the institutional desk?
Wadhwa: The fact that the volumes have dried up itself is a very important indicator that we are in a market that is unlikely to do something significant downwards or upwards over a period of time. So I would tend to agree that we are range bound and we are partly range bound because volumes are low and overall the sentiment and interest continues to be lackluster at this point of time.
Wadhwa: Part of the reason that the sentiment seems to have improved over the last 30-days; in particular in the last 10-days or so is because one of the big factors that was determining the weak sentiment - the oil price - seems to be under a greater containment at this point of time. But if you look at large flows of money, the moment US goes through a difficult economic phase and that’s what is happening in US right now, money flows across all emerging markets tend to get affected.
I would believe that was true weeks ago and it continues to be true today and my guess is that it shall continue to remain true for some period of time until we see a complete resolution of the fiscal challenges that US and much of the western world has faced at this point of time. I would argue that there is a lack of sentiment and although part of the sentiment has been addressed by some resolution of the political situation and some resolution on the oil price - a decent part of it continues to be affected by the weak US economy and the weak financial environment around us at this point of time.
Q: In terms of charts at this point in time what is that you are recommending clients stocks specific or even sector wise?
Thakkar: It is more stocks-specific market and there is clear lack of volumes as pointed out on the show and it indicates that nothing significant might happen over the next few weeks or in the 15-20 days or probably a month or so. So I think it will be a lot more stocks specific market and there are some interesting things happening in the pharma sector, if you see in stocks like Sun Pharma, Glenmark and Lupin trade very close to their 52-week highs and that is why I think some action can happen.
Capital goods is another sector, which we like a lot infact the chart patterns suggest that it will be a good strategy to buy stocks like BHEL, Larsen & Toubro and Crompton Greaves on dips. I think these are two sectors or probably couple of few stocks, where we can find some kind of interesting patterns on the charts.
Q: What’s your sense of what happened in the telecom Space today - there was news on Reliance Communications and how Idea and BSNL area looking at interconnectivity for Reliance Communication’s GSM network, but more importantly there was also the launch of Idea’s operations in Mumbai, what is it that you are looking at for the sector going forward and what would be your recommendation for the space?
Wadhwa: Telecom has consolidated at different points of time and I would like to believe you are now seeing a scenario where the top two-three leaders have got very clearly established; there are some that are and were struggling to really build themselves up and now then there is Idea which has come in a sense from the middle situation and through this whole consolidation process moving towards the upper end. I personally believe that most markets in the world tend to operate by not more than three dominant players. But given the size of this market and particularly the pace at which new subscribers are being added, the market seems to have a potential of having more than three leaders in the group and Idea’s aspirations as was highlighted by Mr. Birla today as well as consistent with the launch that they have just done.
It’s consistent as I said with one of the mid-tier players kind of moving or aspiring to move upward. So I think its an interesting situation, I do believe that there is at least one more consolidation in the telecom sector, whether that would happen in the near future or in the mid term, I don’t know and there is likely to be one more consolidation, we still have many players and more added on.
Q: How have you read into the recent changes that have come about with QIP? Do you think India Inc. is now better equipped to raise money vis-à-vis ADRs (American Depositary Receipt) or the GDR (Global Depositary Receipt) route?
Wadhwa: Certainly, what the change in the formula for QIP issues has done is brought the situation a little more to parity. The 26-week average meant that almost every single stock was trading at significant discount to the SEBI (
Securities and Exchange Board of India) price. Obviously, the ability to raise money is a function of pricing and the regulator is addressing that but equally it is a function of whether there are buyers in the market place and that honestly has to be tested yet. All that I can say is that the change in this rule has certainly created a new environment and will facilitate should there be potential buyers.
But whether there are potential buyers, is still to be tested. Of course there is the other issue which also comes up to say that should the QIP result in somebody acquiring more than 15% or triggering the code, what happens to the open offer as a result, because the change in the regulation has been made for issue of QIPs? The change in regulation has not been made consequently for open offer and open offer related issues. There the price still seems to be 26-weeks and two-week average - whichever is higher.
We have a bit of an anomaly but that’s only if somebody triggers an open offer. If somebody doesn’t trigger an open offer, we do have an interesting situation where possibility of new QIP has certainly been established.
Q: What’s your take on the meeting that happened yesterday between oil PSU and the oil ministry given the fact that a lot of the fate of the OMC’s as well as Oil exploration companies depends on what comes out of the Chaturvedi panel, the recommendations didn’t find favor, what’s the view on the sector?
Wadhwa: It’s a difficult scenario. On the one hand, the government is obviously constrained in its ability to be able to let a free price mechanism prevail. The government, with the current inflation rate constrained to continue providing the support that it has to the retail customer and that obviously is having a serious toll on the oil companies. All I can say is that it is a very difficult situation that either you go left or you go right at this point of time. As a part of the oil company, I would certainly feel very worried about my future if I have to continue subsidizing and incurring losses on every single unit of oil that I sell. So it is a difficult situation and I don’t know what the resolution is because whether left or right, it’s a difficult suggestion.
Q: Come in on the local sentiment. While sentiment of one faction of local participants seems to have improved, it is the FII participants that still haven’t covered their positions. What's the call on the institutional activity?
Wadhwa: My guess is that the institutions are waiting to see how the FII sentiment settles over a little longish period of time before they take a call on this. Should the FII’s sentiment, which seems to have been marginally improved, continues to remain there, then I believe that one will see growing and a more interested institutional approach. But whether the FII interest shall remain there and for how long, is something that we need to still test.
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