Mkts may rise 10-15% over next 6-9 months: Kotak Secs

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18’s exclusive interview with SA Narayan:

Q: Do you see sort of a rally sustaining the pre-earnings season or do you think we will wait and watch it out?

A: I think personally, the market post the interest rate cut in US went up by 600 points, which was much more than what the market expected at that point of time. Post that, we are reasonably well priced and the upside from here in the short-term looks not very great. But if one has to take a medium to long-term view post the next quarter numbers, market will again start discounting 2009 and also 2010 that’s when the next upside will come in the market.       

Q: How much do you think we can go up by in terms of percentage terms either on the Sensex or the Nifty?

A: If one has to take a six-nine months view, I think one still has about 10-15%.

Q: You pointed out that immediately you don’t sound bullish and the US markets as well, after two days of celebrating, the rate cut yesterday came to terms with the fact that they can raise inflation fears and we did see that market lose abet, inflation fears in Euro land as well. How do you see the near-term panning out? What kind of downsides maybe for Indian markets if there is bad news globally?

A: I do not see big downside from here for the Indian markets except it can be even base like political scenario or something like that but status quo markets will be in the range of 300 points plus-minus from here.

Q: What are you factoring in terms of an overall growth for earnings this quarter? We are coming off a weak quarter for IT; so overall how do you think we will pan out?

A: I think 2008, 850 is almost 19-20 times; which the market’s not traded above this range in the past.

Q: What is your FY09 EPS target for the Sensex, 850 for FY08 and for FY09?

A: It should be about 1,000.

Q: Where would you be bullish on? For instance would you be bullish on the interest rate sectors that’s the one that took the market to these levels?

A: I think the fear of the interest rate is more or less over; Indian interest rates seem to have peaked now. At what point of time they will start the downward movement is a point we need to look at. But I do not see it going up from at this point of time - is a good news for the market and hence, one were to look at sectors, I would look at interest rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, auto etc.