Apr 19, 2012, 08.56 AM IST
Market analyst SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com told CNBC-TV18 that Uttam Galva’s plans to expand operations and Saint Gobain plans to de-list its Indian arm have made them top stocks to watch out for
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com gives his view on Uttam Galva , Saint Gobain , Exide and IVRCL Infra.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video
Q: Uttam Galva has confirmed that it has no plans to sell its land at Khopoli? Do you see any prospects in the stock and why has it moved so much today?
A: With news of Uttam Galva's plans of the increasing the land-holding at Khopoli, I don't think that there is any logic in the rumours about plans for the sale of the land at Khopoli.
There are also reports that ArcelorMittal, who is a joint promoter of Uttam Galva, plans to purchase a HRC (hot rolled coiled steel) unit and then converting it manufacture galvanised plates or corrugated sheets.
So definitely there is going to be some expansion and the stock could not have moved merely on news of the land sale. Also, the sale of land may not really prove to be a feasible or sensible for the company.
On the contrary, the company has also announced plans of moving up the value chain.
Q: Exide is now down about 4.5%. They have cut the prices of their batteries in the replacement market by 0%-17%. Do you expect a further downside from the levels of Rs 130?
A: No, I don't think there will be any further fall as investors will closely watch the Q4 results of the company. In fact, the cut in the selling price seems to be a sensible move. Probably that will give them a larger market share as competitors like Amara Raja have not gone for a price cut. But this could also be seen as a negative for the company.
But since this is a planned strategy by the company, investor focus will be more on the Q4 results of the company.
Q: Saint Gobain is up about 5% today and the volumes are almost 10 times the stock's 10-day average. There is some news that the parent company is looking to delist its Indian arm. You sense a reaction to this?
A: That's right. The news of delisting is on very strong ground. Saint Gobain, France, holds a 86% stake in the company and in its private capacity has acquired the float glass business of Sezal Glass six months ago for about Rs 600-650 crore.
The company has an equity base of about Rs 90 crore, a 14% public float and the present market cap is close to about Rs 550 crore.
So even if the company is to be delisted and this 14% is to be acquired, it is going to cost the parent company, which is a 40-billion Euro topline entity, less than Rs 100 crore. So, the delisting is just a matter of time.
Q: Is the rally complete on IVRCL Infra?
A: Unless and until we hear of news about the revival of the hostile takeover bid or news of the Aircel Group halting its share-acquisition drive in the market, traders and short-term investors will keep exiting the stock.
This kind of correction could stop at about Rs 60 or so. The moment the share price falls below Rs 60, some FIIs may come in and acquire a large chunk of the shares.
In my view, Rs 60 is a very attractive level for traders or short-term investors to re-enter the stock.
Markets face resistance; Nifty likely to correct soon
After expansion comes contraction - this is the theme which the stock markets have begun to work on. This letter has been upbeat on the market. We still are, when it comes to the long term. The short term scenario may be different. For short term traders the strategy should be to take swing trades lasting one or two days, only on extremes.
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