Nov 06, 2012, 02.01 PM IST
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mehraboon Irani of Nirmal Bang Securities spoke about his reading of Crompton Greaves, Apollo Tyres, State Bank of India and Cipla.
In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mehraboon Irani of Nirmal Bang Securities spoke about his reading of Crompton Greaves , Apollo Tyres , State Bank of India and Cipla .
Below is an edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18.
Q: What is your view on Crompton Greaves? After yesterday’s cut in share price, how would you approach the stock today?
A: I think after remaining very negative for a long time, I am surprised on this number. I have changed my view and I am turning positive on Crompton. I think maybe Rs 105-102-107 would be a level, where one should be buying into Crompton.
What has impressed me after a very long-term, as far as the numbers goes, is the Indian business. If one sees that power margins have improved and looks at the order backlog and the spate of new orders, which has come in, I think one can state confidently as far as the Indian operations goes. Possibly better times are ahead for Crompton.
As the Belgium operations goes due to restructuring, we have had one more quarter with losses. I think these losses could continue for one or two more quarters.
But, I think we honestly do not know right what Europe is going to be two years down the line. If one looks at the Indian operations, restructuring is happening, cost saving measures are erupted, the order inflows, the backlog, margin improvement as far as power goes. If you look at the businesses, none of the businesses have shown a contraction. So, all said and done, despite all the negatives and possibly reports coming out stating that Crompton remains a sell. I think, I am turning my view. Rs 100-105 according to me would be a level where people should be buying into the stock, from a little longer-term angle.
Q: How would you approach some of these tyre names? You track them closely, Apollo Tyres slipped post numbers because of fund raising, Ceat was down quite a bit, would you buy on dips?
A: I would not change my view as far as Apollo Tyres goes. Whilst stating that the dilution which is going to happen over the next 2-3 weeks, the company is looking at a QIP. I understand that the QIP is more or less finalised. Promoters are going to take warrants which should not be at a price lower than the QIP price. But all said and done, people have started looking at this, little negatively stating that the RoE will come down. And there will be equity expansion. Earnings will not look very good in terms of total equity. But, I don’t agree with that view. I personally feel Apollo Tyres is on a great wicket.
I think Indian investors have still not become matured, in terms that when good companies look out for acquisitions and expansions, ultimately returns do come in. It takes a longer period. I remember how we looked at Tata Motors negatively, when it looked at JLR. We also looked negatively at Sun Pharma when the Taro thing was happening. So, all said and done Apollo Tyres has made acquisitions in the past. I think it’s the only company in the tyre sector which I would call a global company.
I am very positive on Apollo Tyres. Although the RoE is going to come down, equity is going to expand and the stock may not do many things over the next 1-2-3 quarters now. I am not surprised that the analysts brought down the estimate over the 24 hours. Stating that the equity expansion is going to possibly not make earnings look impressive. It maybe that over the next one year the stock may not go over Rs 100-110. But 3-4 years down the line, Apollo Tyres will remain single largest tyre company. Possibly the only global tyre company as far as India is concerned.
Intermediate top in Nifty is probably in process. Markets may move towards distribution or correction; Monday may have seen an exhaustion gap in Nifty
ALL GOOD THINGS COME TO AN END. The rally in Nifty which started from 5975 and touched 6415 may now be coming to an end. Fresh buying should be done only after some downward movement in prices has taken place.
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