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Is time ripe to shape mkt history? Damani quizzes experts

Published on Sat, Apr 04, 2009 at 12:31 | Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Mon, Apr 06, 2009 at 13:15

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Is time ripe to shape mkt history? Damani quizzes experts

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Ramesh Damani, Member, BSE, asks market experts about their outlook for the year 2010.

Madhu Kela, Head-Equity, Reliance MF, is of the view that 2009 is going to be a tough market to make money and one will have to do much more vigorous work. Investors will have to be very alert and markets will have lot of volatility. He believes that opportunities are going to be there in 2009-10 to make a lot of money.

Kela is quite confident that the bottom has been made in India. "This is the time which we believe is a bottom up investing time rather than making those big sector calls. I think these are terrific times to pick stocks with longer-term horizons", Kela stated.

Nilesh Shah, Deputy MD, ICICI Prudential AMC, believes that markets are at a time where history can be shaped or maybe the future. "If all of us go and vote sensibly? - will the market have different index, the answer is maybe. This is an era where lot of events are going to happen and they are going to shape how the markets are going to behave."

Narayan Ramachandran, MD, Morgan Stanley, does not expect markets to gallop to a new high a year from now. "I do not think equity market is the asset class of choice on a forward one year view even though it may have a positive return."

Jehangir Aziz, Chief Economist, JP Morgan, said there is enough in the economy, in terms of policies undertaken in early part of this year and last December onwards, to get us through a pretty decent economic turnaround in the second half of the year.

Abhay Laijawala, Head-Research, Deutsche Bank, said currently we have a Sensex target of 11,500 for next year. However, he was quick to add that this target could change depending on the contours and the shape that the next government takes.

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview of Madhu Kela, Nilesh Shah, Narayan Ramachandran, Jehangir Aziz and Abhay Laijawala with Ramesh Damani on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Damani: 2008-09 were watershed years, wasted a lot of investors wealth- what is the outlook for 2010?
Kela: I think we have already been 12-15 months in this vicious bear run. I do not rule out the possibility of lot of events unfolding which are not pleasant, which are not fundamentally good and the news flow which might continue to be bad. However I think the speed of the fall and the confidence of the bear in this market when I look, suggests to me that maybe market has discounted a significant portion of the bad news and as we look at, every bad news which comes in might be an opportunity to buy. However this is not a hunky dory market and I am not suggesting that we are in a bull market, that you are in 2002 and buy a stock and go to sleep and you will make 500% in 2008. This is going to be a tough market to make money and one will have to do much more vigorous work, you have to be very alert and markets will have lot of volatility. So opportunities are going to be there in 2009-10 to make a lot of money.

Damani: Would you sense the bottom we made globally in Dow or Sensex - is the bottom going to hold now?
Kela: I am quite confident that the bottom is been made in India at least, I think what we saw in last October, again as fund managers would like to have our back covered, so I must say - if we don't have a catastrophic government which is being formed and the policy reversal in India, some one was telling me that Prakash Karat becoming the Finance Minister of India, so that scenarios are different obviously but barring that we may have seen the worst.

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