Indian will outperform US mkts: Dimensions Consulting

Published on Wed, Aug 01, 2007 at 09:30 |  Source : Moneycontrol.com

Updated at Thu, Aug 02, 2007 at 14:16  

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Ajay Srivastava, Dimensions Consulting

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The Sensex closed Tuesday up 290.08 points, or 1.9%, at 15550.99, while the Nifty ended up 88.80 points, or 2%, at 4528.85. The Dow ended down 146.32 points at 13,211.91. Asian markets are trading in red today on the back of negative US cues. Crude breached the USD 78 per barrel in intra-day trade on the Nymex.

Ajay Srivastava of Dimensions Consulting said the Indian markets would come out much stronger after this roller coaster ride.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ajay Srivastava:

Q: How do you think we will come out of this because it's been yo-yoing between days and this morning again looks like a gap down?

A: At the end of a roller costar ride, you always come out with a high. So post all this commotion that we are going to have, you will see a much stronger Indian market that's one. The fact is that the paradigm shift taking place in the economies of the world. You are seeing the so called risky Asian economies picking up and you have seen the so called risk free US getting troubled by one thing after another. You will see that the Indian, Chinese economies etc, are far more stable in performance, growth and corporate governance, particularly India.

There is no reason to worry about it although there will be ups and downs but India will come out of it on tops and will out perform the western markets in this year. We are quiet sure about it. 

Q: In the near term, do you see the potential for substantial down side? Or do you think we will get away with these odd bad days and still not break down completely?

A: I don't think we will break down completely at least given what we see the interest from the private equity side, interest from the FDI side. We are quiet sure that if there is a brake down the values will be such attractively priced that we will see the P/E players coming in secondary market.

So I don't think we are looking at a break down and lets classify what's a break down is it is a 4,000 to 5,000 points on the Sensex or 3,000 points, I don't think that going to happen maybe a 500-1000 is normal for a 15,000 index. But if there is a break down there is enough buying power setting on the side to pick up the stocks and support the bottom.

Q: How have earnings gone down in this quarter and if at all the market is heading for a break down at these levels, is it a buying opportunity or not quiet yet?

A: 60% of the companies that we have been looking at have had phenomenal results much beyond expectations. There have been 40% laggards, which the markets have punished quiet substantially. So to the extent the price is supported by earnings? The answer is yes. Is it a good buying opportunity? The answer is no, because I don't think many investors have the appetite to ride the roller coaster through this period. You know you will feel nervous in the morning looking at it.

Having said that one will get opportunities if tomorrow there correction today there is a correction, go and buy the capital good sector, go and buy the sector you always wanted to buy, you may not get a chance again to buy it because next quarter the results of this companies is going to be much better than this quarter. Historically always will be, you will not get the same prices again in next two months time.             

Q: How would approach this opening? Strong stocks are down quiet substantially, is it a buying opportunity? Would you approach it like that?              

A: This is not a buying opportunity; you just got it to play out in terms of volatility. You could have hard shocks coming in this place for the next day or two. So it's not a buying opportunity but keep a watch if it goes down further maybe another 2-3% in the market, yes you start buying but not today.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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