Get expert advice on stocks/sectors you should buy intoPublished on Tue, Jan 04, 2011 at 14:57 | Source : CNBC-TV18 Updated at Wed, Jan 05, 2011 at 09:58
CNBC-TV18's Reema Tendulkar and Gautam Broker spoke to independent market strategist Rajesh Jain for his fundamental view and chartpundit.com's Hemen Kapadia for his technical view on specific stocks/sectors. Here are their expert views: On Suzlon : Jain finds Suzlon very clearly a distressed asset and apart from the huge balance sheet issues particularly pertaining to the debt, he finds that there is this question mark, whether on an operating basis the company will be able to meet the breakeven volumes in terms of contract. "For the current year we have seen just about 60% of the breakeven target of 2000 megawatt against which there are 1100 megawatts of orders with the company. Suzlon needs to ramp up its sales, which is the core operating issue in terms of an investment perspective. However, the balance sheet issues have also clouded the otherwise core business model of the company. With Gamesa coming and offering a straight 40-50% premium on the existing market capitalisation of the company, it clearly indicates a confidence in the business model that perhaps the market was not recognizing. If indeed the deal goes through, it would work wonders for what is otherwise a very unique product segment and a business model. Suzlon has tremendous franchise globally as well as within the Indian domestic market. It is positive news and I would certainly watch it with a lot of positive expectations," he finishes. On Tata Steel : Based on the time horizon that an investor chooses for himself, Jain says that Tata Steel can easily give him a 20% kind of return. Basically a good stock with little downside, he says, "Most market strategists expect Rs 750-800 kind of a price ticker on this stock in 2011. There are very clear drivers for it - the domestic business is doing very well, there is expansion in place at the Jamshedpur unit as well as a new unit in Orissa. Both of these should contribute to the volumes. The Indian operations yield one of the highest margins in the steel business globally. If you look at the current trends, it is expected widely that steel prices will firm up and realisations would be better. Similarly, the European and UK operations are promising better realisations. Tata Steel has been hiving off burdens on the business model like the Teesside plant. Tata Steel is a unique company where particularly, the Indian operation has a 100% captive iron ore supply and over 50% of the coking coal supply is available to the company. Add to that the company is actively looking for acquisition of coking coal assets. We see the margins only expanding further." Kapadia has a hold call as well. He sees an intermediate uptrend which signifies the resumption of its long-term uptrend. "Rs 740 would be a medium-term target and one can expect further upside," he says. "In terms of maximum returns in metal stocks, I think it would be Sterlite industries. Sterlite has currently moved for six-weeks in a row to Rs 195. If it comes down to Rs 180 which it just might, one can expect a price target of Rs 240. Sterlite has been moving sideways for six-seven months, a breakout from here, its showing all the signs after a correction. Percentagewise appreciation probably, Sterlite would give you more but Tata Steel is worth holding on to. It has been looking good and continues to look good. On NTPC : A fairly good stock, says Jain, where he sees an investor gaining an easy 10-15% over the year. "The triggers have to be capacity increase. The commissioning has accelerated. In the current year, we should see a good commissioning. Going forward, the company expects to accelerate that further. That's the big upside. The other aspect is securing for itself the coking coal assets for which NTPC has been working aggressively. The market is not discounting the coking coal result that the company has and that is another upside in the counter." Kapadia agrees with Jain's view. He adds, "Things are looking up a bit after a long time. In fact, notwithstanding the past underperformance, the stock is improving. It's going to be a bumpy ride. It's not going to be a clear run but yes, one can expect a price target of Rs 220-225 in the next six-nine months." On Kotak Mahindra Bank : Jain says that if an investor is one is comfortable with quotational loss, then Kotak Mahindra Bank has certainly given some outperformance gains on the market because when the stock tends to perform it tends to move with a great deal of momentum and energy. He clarifies, "If you look at the emerging business model of the bank, it has very clearly focused on retail. In terms of the valuations, it's in the upper bracket along with the best in class like HDFC Bank. Going forward, we continue to expect the metrics to improve, particularly, those on share of retail, CASA and the net interest margin. Even the NPA's are not too compelling at this point." Jain says it makes sense to hold this newer generation private sector bank because it also has a broad based business model and on a good day, at a time when the markets are moving up the investor would stand to make an easy 10% to 12%. But he cautions that if the investor's risk profile is not that aggressive, then a switch to HDFC Bank is warranted. Banks have had been outperformers, according to Kapadia. "I don't think they are going to be outperformers now but they won't be underperformers either. They are going to be market performers and yes, after the correction, things are stable though they haven't turned much. I don't think they are going to lag behind too badly." He has a hold call on Kotak Mahindra Bank and doesn't see any problem arising in the near-term. "We have almost finished a three-month correction. The downtrend appears limited. All the banks are looking reasonably decent so I would suggest a hold on the stock."
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