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Aug 18, 2010, 03.00 PM IST
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Aashish Tater of Fort Share Broking spoke about his midcap ideas and appears bullish on Shree Ram Mills.
He also appears bullish on Shree Ram Mills which he says is available at a mouth watering level. "The company marketcap is roughly Rs 450 crore. They are about to sell Rs 2,500 crore worth of land that means six times the current market price in a few weeks from here," he said.
Below is a verbatim transcript. Also watch the accompanying videos.
Q: UB Holdings is a stock which has done well over the last couple of months. Why do you think there is still an upside to UB Holdings?
A: The stock has got potential upside from current levels because UB as a group is having lot of debt problems in their balance sheet. If you see the entire UB Group, they are sitting on billions of dollars of debt. If I visit the balance sheet of UB Holdings, they own Kingfisher, formally known as Kingfisher Airlines which is right now known as Kingfisher Training Aviation, they have to go and list this particular script in order to get rid of this huge debt into the balance sheet.
Every time there is a speculation in 2006-07 that Kingfisher original would be getting listed into the bourses, the stock used to hover around at Rs 800 -1000 mark. With the story getting fuzzed out, the stock got beaten again at Rs 200-300 levels.
So we are recommending, buy this with corporate restructuring form UB Holding this stock can see multibagger potential from current levels. On the contrary the company is having debt of approximately Rs 800 in the standalone balance sheet of the company and Rs 1,700 crore worth of market cap. On that the company is sitting on a listed quoted investment of Rs 5,000 crore across the group companies. Now we should give a holding discount to these companies.
Apart from this there are a couple of developments that we can see going forward. The company had a joint venture with Prestige Group for UB City. Now Prestige Group would be coming up with an IPO and there is no listed proxy for that. Again UB Holdings would be looked upon.
The second catch for us is if former Kingfisher Airlines come and list this stock and can see circuit after circuit, because there is tremendous value hidden in the balance sheet of the company. On the downside the stock is getting accumulated with very high deliverable volumes, continuously for approximately last 30-50 days.
The stock is not giving up despite bad global cues or anything, but is showing great strength. We feel this stock has got upside till Rs 600-700 levels in a short span of time, once the company decides for corporate restructuring and get this particular stock off the balance sheet listed.
Q: Which stock are you talking about in aviation, because there is one listed Kingfisher Airlines which trades at Rs 53-54?
A: The primer Kingfisher Airlines is known as Kingfisher Training and Aviation. This is the unquoted investment. The company owns Rs 3 crore worth of stock into the Kingfisher thing. There is a tremendous value hidden into this thing. We have valued this at approximately Rs 7,000-8,000 crore. Going through the analysts picks from previous years, they were really bullish on this particular balance sheet asset.
Every time the stock touched the Rs 1,000 mark, just because there were rumours on the market that this stock is about to get listed. What we are betting on, is right now buy a small chunk and let us see how developments shape up and then at least we can sell these stocks at those Rs 800-1,000 levels, rather than buy them on a speculative side.
Q: On the quoted equity holdings that it has, what kind of discount is UB Holdings already trading at?
A: If I see the entire enterprise value, it is approximately Rs 2,500 crore and they have quoted equity of Rs 5,000 crore. They are roughly trading at 0.5 to the enterprise value. Now given that McDowell and other stocks have got tremendous potential and the company yesterday only, the management spoke about UB Spirits.
There are a lot of free cash flows that the company is about to generate. Itís just a pickup for the company. These companies are all primarily owned by UB Holdings in very large chunks. In fact there are couple of unlisted players, unlisted items that attract us from longer-term perspective one of them being UB Sports. Nobody knows what exactly could be the value once these stocks generate positive cash flows.
Q: Shree Ram Mills is the other stock you are bullish on. What is the story here and what valuations have you worked out for it?
A: Shree Ram Mills is available at a mouth watering level. The company marketcap is roughly Rs 450 crore. They are about to sell Rs 2,500 crore worth of land that means six times the current market price in a few weeks from here. The company owns approximately 26.5 million sq ft area in Worli, Mumbai, which is worth Rs 12,500 crore. We have compared this with Raymond and we felt that there is tremendous value hidden in this particular script compared to other peers, quasi real estate companies.
The company has also come up with a residential project of which Palais Royale they will generate profit of Rs 2,500 crore. The company is developing 8.8 lakh sq ft in this particular case. I would say a company that is going to generate a profit of Rs 2,000 crore plus in just two years down the line and the marketcap is available at Rs 400 crore. Even if the company trades at 4-5 times its earnings, the company would be easily trading somewhere around Rs 7,000-8,000 core of marketcap which is 15-16 times from current levels.
However there is a small litigation that the company has to go through with developers Kalpataru. If we see the case litigation over there, it would be somewhere around Rs 200-300 crore. The company owns just Rs 300-400 crore debt into their balance sheet.
Even if I deduct all these things from the land bank value of Rs 12,500 crore, the net asset of stock works out to be around Rs 11,000 crore. Of which even if I subtract these two cash inflows that the company is going to get by 2012, it is approximately Rs 5,000 crore in next three years on a marketcap of Rs 400 core.
The stock is a no brainer for 8-10 times from current levels if someone has a potential to hold that long for a longer term horizon. But from short-term perspective, I can see this stock at a four-figure once this particular deal itself is announced.
Q: Lok Housing which you are bullish on. There was some controversy in 2009 there was some restatement of accounts, for the last three years, because bookings hadnít materialized, write offs of Rs 225 crore. Are you sure that everything is clean with Lok Housing?
A: Lok Housing is one script that we chalked out because the promoters have actually increased their stake by 4%. When we actually studied that, why could a promoter into a company which does not have any real estate project as of now is buying from the open market. We found one small development for Mumbai Housing Area Development Authority (MHADA). They have allowed coastal development of the region. This is the only way the real estate of Mumbai prices can be made affordable to the middle class.
The company actually owns 550 acres of land in Mumbai and its suburbs. With the new news that this particular script will definitely make it into the limelight sometime from hereon because the promoter has bought a) 4% plus stake after the news. b) The company owns 180 acre of land in Turbhe which because of this pending litigation this stock got beaten down from Rs 600 levels in 2007.
If we see the entire enterprise value of this particular company from the assets it owns right now, it is roughly Rs 1,350 crore. I have not included the latest prices that the land is saleable, but I have taken into account the municipality rates and the most conservative estimate. If I speak to various analysts who are tracking this particular Mumbai sector, they have given me a rough figure for these kinds of properties of approximately Rs 2,000-2,200 crore.
Right now the stock is available at a marketcap of Rs 264 crore despite those Rs 225 crore write off and everything. Now with the management coming out and buying openly from open market and recent development of MHADA project, I think the stock has got tremendous potential.
The stock was beaten down to Rs 40-45 levels where the promoter has actually accumulated the stock. Because of these developments the stock could be hovering around the Rs 200-300 levels also if the bet goes correct. On the downside the stock is protected because the promoter itself is buying into the stock.
Q: Disclosures, of the above three which ones do you own?
A: I am not supposed to own any of the stocks but we have been aggressively recommending all the stocks to our clients and we might have positions into the proprietary books of the company. We have a vested interest in the stocks.
Tags: market, UB Holdings, Prestige Group, Kingfisher Airlines, UB Sports, Shree Ram Mills, Raymond, Palais Royale, Kalpataru, Lok Housing, MHADA, Turbhe
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