A snapshot of key market expectations from Budget 2013

A snapshot of key market expectations from Budget 2013
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A snapshot of key market expectations from Budget 2013
  • 
	Morgan Stanley
	
	Budget could be positive for the oil & gas industry and neutral for utilities, media, property, and health care. Do not see any direct policy measures that would hurt consumption, but lower government expenditure would constrain top line for some of the consumer sectors near term. 

    Morgan Stanley Budget could be positive for the oil & gas industry and neutral for utilities, media, property, and health care. Do not see any direct policy measures that would hurt consumption, but lower government expenditure would constrain top line for some of the consumer sectors near term. 

  • 
	Goldman Sachs
	
	The Budget could be positive for banks, capital goods, and logistics, but negative for consumer goods. It will focus on expenditure cuts - which have a better chance of succeeding - rather than optimistic revenue increases.

    Goldman Sachs The Budget could be positive for banks, capital goods, and logistics, but negative for consumer goods. It will focus on expenditure cuts - which have a better chance of succeeding - rather than optimistic revenue increases.

  • 
	JM Financial
	
	Single-window clearance could be announced for high-value projects, introduction of CTT (Commodity Transaction Tax), more clarity on Land Acquisition Bill and MMRD Bill, lower dividend distribution tax from foreign subsidiaries (current 15 percent)

    JM Financial Single-window clearance could be announced for high-value projects, introduction of CTT (Commodity Transaction Tax), more clarity on Land Acquisition Bill and MMRD Bill, lower dividend distribution tax from foreign subsidiaries (current 15 percent)

  • 
	CARE Research
	
	There would be some affirmative steps in the areas of agriculture, warehousing, continuation of interest subvention and write-offs, SMEs etc. But, we may be assured that populism will not be at the expense of prudence.

    CARE Research There would be some affirmative steps in the areas of agriculture, warehousing, continuation of interest subvention and write-offs, SMEs etc. But, we may be assured that populism will not be at the expense of prudence.

  • 
	India Infoline
	
	Unlikely the FM would increase I-T exemption slab beyond Rs 2 lakh. Enhanced tax collection is critical given the reigning deficit, and an exemption of Rs 2.5-3 lakh will help many people escape the tax net. The FM simply cannot afford this potential loss.

    India Infoline Unlikely the FM would increase I-T exemption slab beyond Rs 2 lakh. Enhanced tax collection is critical given the reigning deficit, and an exemption of Rs 2.5-3 lakh will help many people escape the tax net. The FM simply cannot afford this potential loss.

  • 
	Aditya Birla Money
	
	Reintroduction of customs duty on crude oil to boost revenues, additional excise duty on diesel cars, MAT tax to be lowered/ abolished for infrastructure players. 

    Aditya Birla Money Reintroduction of customs duty on crude oil to boost revenues, additional excise duty on diesel cars, MAT tax to be lowered/ abolished for infrastructure players. 

  • 
	Emkay Share & Stock Brokers
	
	Plan and non-Plan expenditure growth seen lower at 7% and 11% respectively on  lower allocation for subsidy at Rs 2.2 lakh crore (-21 percent over FY13). Food subsidy bill for FY14E expected at Rs 1 lakh crore due to proposed food security bill. 

    Emkay Share & Stock Brokers Plan and non-Plan expenditure growth seen lower at 7% and 11% respectively on  lower allocation for subsidy at Rs 2.2 lakh crore (-21 percent over FY13). Food subsidy bill for FY14E expected at Rs 1 lakh crore due to proposed food security bill. 

  • 
	Religare
	
	A 4.8 percent fisc for FY14 is structurally positive, save the higher fuel/fertilizer inflation, potentially back to FY12 levels, delaying the rate-cut cycle. On the bright side could be steps to channelize longterm capital into investments.

    Religare A 4.8 percent fisc for FY14 is structurally positive, save the higher fuel/fertilizer inflation, potentially back to FY12 levels, delaying the rate-cut cycle. On the bright side could be steps to channelize longterm capital into investments.

  • 
	Nirmal Bang
	
	Flagship welfare programmes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and other welfare schemes could take a backseat due to limited budgetary allocation amid strategic monitoring of subsidy disbursal through Aadhar-based transfers  

    Nirmal Bang Flagship welfare programmes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and other welfare schemes could take a backseat due to limited budgetary allocation amid strategic monitoring of subsidy disbursal through Aadhar-based transfers  

  • 
	Axis Capital
	
	Import duty hike on power equipment by 5-10 percent from current 20-27 percent, higher depreciation rate on capex from 15 percent to 25 percent, restoration of subsidy for wind power, decrease in Defence outlay by 5 percent. 

    Axis Capital Import duty hike on power equipment by 5-10 percent from current 20-27 percent, higher depreciation rate on capex from 15 percent to 25 percent, restoration of subsidy for wind power, decrease in Defence outlay by 5 percent. 

  • 
	Standard Chartered
	
	The economic benefits of a higher tax on the super-rich are uncertain. However, given the upcoming election, the government might frame such a measure as an attempt to redistribute wealth.

    Standard Chartered The economic benefits of a higher tax on the super-rich are uncertain. However, given the upcoming election, the government might frame such a measure as an attempt to redistribute wealth.

  • 
	Morgan Stanley
	
	Budget could be positive for the oil & gas industry and neutral for utilities, media, property, and health care. Do not see any direct policy measures that would hurt consumption, but lower government expenditure would constrain top line for some of the consumer sectors near term. 
  • 
	Goldman Sachs
	
	The Budget could be positive for banks, capital goods, and logistics, but negative for consumer goods. It will focus on expenditure cuts - which have a better chance of succeeding - rather than optimistic revenue increases.
  • 
	JM Financial
	
	Single-window clearance could be announced for high-value projects, introduction of CTT (Commodity Transaction Tax), more clarity on Land Acquisition Bill and MMRD Bill, lower dividend distribution tax from foreign subsidiaries (current 15 percent)
  • 
	CARE Research
	
	There would be some affirmative steps in the areas of agriculture, warehousing, continuation of interest subvention and write-offs, SMEs etc. But, we may be assured that populism will not be at the expense of prudence.
  • 
	India Infoline
	
	Unlikely the FM would increase I-T exemption slab beyond Rs 2 lakh. Enhanced tax collection is critical given the reigning deficit, and an exemption of Rs 2.5-3 lakh will help many people escape the tax net. The FM simply cannot afford this potential loss.
  • 
	Aditya Birla Money
	
	Reintroduction of customs duty on crude oil to boost revenues, additional excise duty on diesel cars, MAT tax to be lowered/ abolished for infrastructure players. 
  • 
	Emkay Share & Stock Brokers
	
	Plan and non-Plan expenditure growth seen lower at 7% and 11% respectively on  lower allocation for subsidy at Rs 2.2 lakh crore (-21 percent over FY13). Food subsidy bill for FY14E expected at Rs 1 lakh crore due to proposed food security bill. 
  • 
	Religare
	
	A 4.8 percent fisc for FY14 is structurally positive, save the higher fuel/fertilizer inflation, potentially back to FY12 levels, delaying the rate-cut cycle. On the bright side could be steps to channelize longterm capital into investments.
  • 
	Nirmal Bang
	
	Flagship welfare programmes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and other welfare schemes could take a backseat due to limited budgetary allocation amid strategic monitoring of subsidy disbursal through Aadhar-based transfers  
  • 
	Axis Capital
	
	Import duty hike on power equipment by 5-10 percent from current 20-27 percent, higher depreciation rate on capex from 15 percent to 25 percent, restoration of subsidy for wind power, decrease in Defence outlay by 5 percent. 
  • 
	Standard Chartered
	
	The economic benefits of a higher tax on the super-rich are uncertain. However, given the upcoming election, the government might frame such a measure as an attempt to redistribute wealth.

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