Spring-time at markets, will the cheer continue today?

Looks like spring’s already here for the markets! Indian bourses ended a volatile session on a high yesterday. The Nifty gained 35 points while the Sensex gained over 100 points. How is trade likely to be today? Let’s check out the cues.

Cues from across the globe:

Greece failed to meet another deadline yesterday to strike a deal to secure the 130 billion euro rescue. But today, political party leaders are back around the negotiating table. That’s not the only talk that Athens has to complete, it also has to deal with private sector bondholders to chart out action and then ultimately present the entire plan to Troika officials so that they can decide whether or not to release more cash.

The fear of Greece not able to reach an agreement rubbed off the US markets as they ended lower, but off their worst levels. S&P closed flat at 1344; Dow is down 17 pts at 12845 and Nasdaq is down 0.1% at 2901.

European markets fell back from a six-month high, with investors worried about whether Greece can avoid a messy default. FTSE ended down 0.2%; DAX closed flat, down 0.03% and the CAC was down 0.6%.

Asia, meanwhile is soft in opening trade today. Taiwan and Hang Seng is up 0.5%, Kospi is up 0.3% but Nikkei and Shanghai are down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.

Meanwhile, the IMF has outlined its central report saying that China's annual economic growth could be cut in half if Europe's debt crisis worsens. This would put pressure on Beijing to unveil significant fiscal stimulus. Under its current model, it expects the growth forecast for 2012 to be at 8.2% from 9%. 

From other asset classes:

In the currency space, the euro is trading at 1.31 to the dollar as Greece meets again today to discuss austerity measures.

The dollar index however was at session high of 79.5 yesterday. It is retreating in morning trade today after Euro strengthened and the index is now near 79.

The Australian dollar is at USD 1.07. The central bank is to decide on rates today.

It was the fifth session of gains for Brent due to cold winter in Europe that boosted heating fuel demand. It pushed the crude's premium to US oil to the highest since November. Brent prices hit USD 116 per barrel yesterday, a six-month high, but settled up 1.2% at USD 115.93/bbl.

Dollar strength is kept other commodities subdued.  The CRB index ended flat and WTI was down 1% at USD 96.9/bbl.

US gold and copper were down 0.9%.

Back home:

The Central Statistical Organisation will today announce its advance estimates of India GDP for the full year 2011-2012. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, the GDP will probably grow by 7.1% in the current year against 8.4% a year ago.

From the policy side, an Empowered Group of Ministers will decide today on allowing further export of sugar and non-basmati rice as well as reviewing the onion and edible oil export situation. Reports suggest that about eight issues related to Food and Commerce Ministries will be discussed at the meeting of the EGoM on food, headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

Also, Trai has issued a paper on review of forbearance on tariffs. It has sought views by Feb 24 on tariff forbearance review in a bid to check recent increase in prices by operators.

Stock to watch out for today:

Tata Tele says that it will file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the recent order canceling three of its licenses.

Newspapers report that UltraTech may buyout partner in the Dubai-based Star Cement.

Pfizer and Ranbaxy Laboratories have been sued in an antitrust case filed in federal court in New York, alleging that the drugmakers engaged in an anti-competitive scheme to delay a generic version of Lipitor into the market.

RIL 's bond risk is falling at the fastest pace since 2009 after its cash more than tripled in the past two years to USD 15 billion, says a media report. One-year CDS on the dollar notes of RIL dropped 92 bps this year to 186. 

JK Tyre & Industries may acquire rubber plantations in Southeast Asia. Its Chennai plant is expected to reach full capacity in six-eight months.    

And in earnings action, M&M will declare its numbers today. According to a CNBC-TV18 poll, the company may see 30% revenue growth led by strong volume trajectory. But watch out for margin improvement after last quarter's disappointment.

SREI Infra is in focus today after Viom Networks' chairman Subodh Bhargava resigned from his post citing personal reasons, but it has sparked speculation that it could be related to an ongoing legal tussle between the company's owners and a former official.

RBI says Manappuram Finance will not be permitted to accept or renew deposits from public. Watch out for movement on the stock.

Meanwhile, Subex has sought RBI and bond holders’ approval to extend maturity of existing FCCBs by four months from March 9th to July 9th

Padma Venkatraman
padma.venkatraman@network18online.com