Drought, Floods and way ahead!

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is now 23 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA). On comparing the seasonal rainfall, it can be said as the most deficient year after 1972 (24 per cent below LPA) affecting 299 districts under drought. Parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka faced the fury of floods due to the impact of climate change. With the start of monsoon season in June, the situation looked grim with cumulative deficiency of 39 per cent below LPA, with no rains it worsened to 54 per cent below LPA as on 24 June 2009, creating a drought like condition and panic in the country. 


But rains catching up late during August and September, farmers had two choices: to sow Kharif crops that could withstand this change in weather. The late rains have also replenished the storage of water in several reservoirs in the country, and raised hopes for a better Rabi crop. As on 16 October 2009, 67 per cent of the live capacity is at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) in 81 reservoirs being monitored by Central Water Commission (CWC).

Kharif rice and sugarcane
Lower coverage of Kharif rice and sugarcane area remains a worry. Of course, our policy makers and analysts are thinking about possible policy options to cope up with this situation, including the possibility of imports. But, the extent of damage to the crops due to lower rainfall does not depend only on cumulative deficiency of rainfall but also on its spread across regions and its timing. It may be worth visiting the past experience of past droughts in this regard. In 1987, the decline in the production of Kharif foodgrains was about 9 per cent due to rainfall deficit of 19 per cent below the LPA. But similar rainfall deficit in 2002 (19 per cent below LPA), had a much larger impact on the Kharif foodgrains production, which declined by 22 per cent. However, during both the period of drought, consumers did not suffer much as there were ample stocks of foodgrains in the country.

Amost similar situation exists today. The government is banking on grain stock of more that 45 million tonnes as of October end. So, the problem of food security is not as much on the consumer front as on the production front. In the current year, maximum deficiency of monsoon is in northwest part of India, with cumulative rainfall at 36 per cent below the LPA. As being the most irrigated belt, this region did not suffer much in terms of production of Kharif crops. Improvement in rainfall after 13 August 2009 is expected to help in recovery of area loss under paddy in the States of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Orissa where paddy sowing continues during September and October. Mostly because delayed rains standing crops have been saved to a large extent and productivity loss is expected to be somewhat less in this region.

Knowing well that Kharif grains, especially paddy, is hit adversely, every effort needs to be made to recover in Rabi season so that country can still have ample grain to feed to its people.