Indiabulls Power won't outperform in near term: Udayan

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Indiabulls Power, a subsidiary of Indiabulls Real Estate, will list its equity shares on the bourses today. The company has fixed its initial public offering (IPO) price at Rs 45 per share, at the higher end of the price band. Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor of CNBC-TV18, said it was very difficult to value the stock currently without numbers. "It will not see outperformance and will be difficult for traders. In the near term, it will be one of the quieter stocks in the market," he added.

Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee's comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Aside from its own fundamentals and how it compares with its peers, it is an interesting comment that there is nothing going in the grey market for Indiabulls Power on listing day.
A: Some other initial public offerings (IPOs) have had valuation issues. I don't think the Indiabulls call is a valuation one, it's an execution call. So one can talk about how it is trading at 2.2 times book or Rs 3 crore per mega watt (MW). The MW that one is talking about is in fiscal year 2012. It starts then and the 2 times book is largely derived from the IPO money. So I don't think you can ascribe these valuations and say Indiabulls is cheap or expensive. That is not the call; the call is that this is entering the power business from scratch. There are some people who believe they can do it which is why they subscribe to it and there are some who believe they have to wait and watch the progress. At this early stage they will not stick their neck out and own a stock and wait for a couple of years to see execution. So that I think is the call.

How can you, on the basis of something which is two-three years away, take valuation call at this point and say there should be big out performance now on.  I would be very surprised if Indiabulls Power out performed majorly from now. I think it will find its level, I don't know what that level is whether between Rs 40-45 or between Rs 42 to 47 that is difficult. Maybe its couple of rupees here or there but you cannot expect out performance right now because on the basis of what the stock will out perform. There are no numbers at this point and there will be no numbers till February-March 2012.

In the near-term there is nothing in it for the punter at all. You will find that the activity will also die down after the first couple of weeks in the stock and it will become a much quite stock than some of the recent listings. I don't know whether the range could easily start a rupee higher and drift a couple of rupees lower than its issue price but that is not very material. This kind of a stock is not for the near-term trader.

Q: Recent history is also not supportive for many of these power stories and this one is like almost a throw back to Reliance Power?

A: The one mistake that they have not made is pricing the issue like Reliance Power. If Indiabulls Power had come at seven times book then it would not have stood at Rs 45. It would have gone down to Rs 20 but that has not happened in this case. Valuations are not that ridiculous, so that the stock has to tank and the numbers will not flow in sufficiently quickly. Then you can see the stock moving higher and higher from here. Essentially the stock will stabilize at a level depending purely on near-term technical factors which are demand and supply, the number of buyers and sellers. They may well settle in a range between Rs 40-45 and then hold a very narrow range for very long period of time.