Some softening of rates seen till next Budget: Roongta

Though inflation is slightly subdued now but chances of that increasing again are high hence the maneuver room available to RBI is very limited.

The cutting of CRR from 6 to 5.5% will release about Rs. 32,000 crore into the system and that should ease the liquidity constraint a little bit and also reiterate RBI’s stance of reverse the interest rate cycle and more towards lower interest rates.  Lower rates will depend on number of factors and  most important being Government’s ability to rein in the fiscal deficit and also depending on the oil prices.

It is now clear that interest rates will come down, though uncertainty remains when that will happen. We may not see any immediate impact on the deposit rates, we have to wait and watch for that and without deposit rates coming down, it is very unlikely that we see lending rates coming down.  So till the next budget there may be some softening of rates.

The estimated deficit numbers for the current year and the projected deficit numbers for the next year and the manner in which that is achieved will have big role to play on when the interest rates will be lowered in the coming year. 

Mr. Roongta can be reached at www.facebook.com/apnapaisa