See dip as a short-term buying opportunity: CFC SeymourPublished on Fri, Feb 05, 2010 at 13:32 | Source : CNBC-TV18 Updated at Sat, Feb 06, 2010 at 12:45
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Dariusz Kowalczyk on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: Your prognosis on how much of a ripple effect the credit default swap (CDS) swaps going out of whack in Portugal, in Spain, in Greece may have on the rest of Asia and US as well because they are relatively smaller countries? You saw the Dubai impact last a day or two, so do you sense this could be a prolonged impact on the rest of the globe or these are just minor hiccups or tremors that will get resolves shortly? A: These countries are not large, at least Greece and Portugal. But Spain is a bigger economy and there are concerns over its debt as well. But the big picture, the problem here is that the growth in 2010 continues to be supported by fiscal stimulus and now it seems that government may be unable to fund this stimulus, these markets became more discriminate regarding debt levels and fiscal position of the public finance sector. That is why Asian markets are falling simply because there is a risk of double dip recession right now in developed economies of the world, if they are unable to continue funding fiscal spending. And since our region is so dependent on exports for its growth, people have to be worried and hence we had sharp sell-off across Asia today. Q: What is the general sense amongst your clients and investors out on the streets, do they still believe that the economic recovery is intact? A: I think for now the consensus continues to be and I agree with that that global growth is accelerating and will accelerate at least for two more quarters. However, equity markets are more forward looking and they anticipate currents in economic cycle about two quarters ahead. So sometime in the first half of this year, it is very likely that the major correction will happen and a lot of people think that it has already started. I think it is not starting yet, but sooner or later sometimes in the first half of the year it has to start because double dip risk is just so high that investors cannot maintain the confidence that they had towards the end of last year.
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Tags: Markets, Nifty, Sensex, Dariusz Kowalczyk, CFC Seymour, credit default swap, Portugal, Spain, Greece |
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