Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia, said many economies were still declining, and that "the green shoots were still underground."
"We had nearly a dozen years of 4% spending growth; it took the consumption share of US GDP (gross domestic product) up to a world record 72.2% in the first quarter of this year. That number has gone down by at least 5 points of GDP if not more over the next three-five years," he said, and pointed out that the US' consumers were overly indebted and had been hit by property, equities and unemployment shocks.
Speaking on the dollar, he said the greenback peaked in February 2002, went down for six years and then when the rest of the world started to implode post the sub-prime crisis, the dollar had rebounded smartly. "The US has had a massive external deficit that needs to be funded, and the dollar may fall ahead," Roach said.
