US unemployment rate to hit 10%: Pimco

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with William Gross on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.

Q: How did you read that jobs report which spooked the market last night?

A: It's an anorexic report. It promises to be so going forward with the consumer sector. With unemployment likely to hit 10% that produces a stark number, more than 15 million people out of work and needing a job. As my report pointed out, another 20 million are working part time or have dropped out of the labour force. So, that's 35 million people. How does the consumer economy work with so many people out of work?

Q: What kind of correlation would draw on growth concerns versus this unemployment figure of 9.5%?

A: The fact is that this report shows anaemic wage growth. So, you have not just people out of work, but you have got consumers that are not making much in terms of raises. You have them raising savings rate from 0% to 8-10% and you have got problem of credit worthiness in terms of those that want to borrow. So, you put that together and you have a got a consumer problem not just now, not just in 2010, but going into 2011-12.

Q: Is that a demographic profile problem as well in the Western countries, largely the US bill as well, which might be stifling consumption patterns going forward?

A: I think that is true. We don't want to get too depressed in here. The Economist has a great report this past week in terms of demographic problem not just in US, but in Japan, Germany, Italy, and other developed countries. A lot of the world is growing older much faster. Older people are more conservative, they spend less, they save more, and that slows consumption. They don't buy new homes, new homes are not built, and so the aging demographic of the baby boomers is not a plus either.

Q: What do you sense by way of an attitude among the US consumers because someone like Stephen Roach has been very critical of where the US consumer might be headed?

A: I think for a long time, for a generation. Much like so with the depression made attitudes change and so consumers, investors will now become conservative savers as opposed to spenders. And the spending was driven by asset appreciation, but at some point in terms of houses, stocks, and other assets that are appreciating that can be borrowed against. That game has stopped and so we must now move in the other direction.