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US eco not to recover anytime soon: Kirby Daley
Published on Fri, Jul 03, 2009 at 10:59  |  Updated at Sat, Jul 04, 2009 at 11:36  |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Kirby Daley of Newedge Group said that the US won't enter recovery phase anytime soon. "The US jobs data is so horrible one can't see a positive spin adding that the data indicates that there could be more bad news yet to come," he said. He recommended buying physical gold as an 'Armageddon' hedge. Daley expressed concern about the viability of system as a whole and said that he saw dollar debasement and a rise in US inflation.

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Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Kirby Daley on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: How should the market read those job numbers in the US overnight?
A: Anyone who can put a positive spin on this numbers, a lot of people are trying, anyone who succeeds, you should hire them for your kid's birthday party, they are terrific magicians - these numbers were horrible. They point out to more bad things to come, it's the number of hours worked falling. It means there is a tremendous amount of slack. Without employment shaping up, forget about playing with numbers and birth death ratio, wages will fall and this will be another blow to the consumer and we will not enter a recovery phase anytime soon.

Q: The impact was shown up on market as well, tactically how will you approach the equity market right now, locally people have been trying to buy some kind of hedges?
A: You don’t have to get too creative; obviously tips are a great way to protect yourself. I think the big question is timing. How much potential earning power do you want to give away? In the meantime with your hedge, your hedge always has a cost, if it is a true hedge. I have a hedge, buying physical gold that is not an inflation hedge, it is an ‘Armageddon’ hedge because some of what is going around the world from the Central Banks concerns me greatly, about the viability of system as a whole.

For an inflation hedge in the US, if I think there will be a debasement against the dollar and an increased inflation in US, I am trying to buy some distressed properties on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, in the hope that my non-dollar assets when there is debasement of the US dollar and inflation, I can pay it off with funny money, so to speak. Those are just two of the things I am doing.

Q: So what is a good trade now in the light of all this economic data?
A: There is no arguing against the risk averted trade. It correlated perfectly throughout this mess and one of those legs of the trade is strengthening USD in a risk aversion environment. What I fear is that we get so used to these correlations and so used to the markets reacting in a certain way that we get caught back footed.

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