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Sensex to quickly bounce back at 15k levels: LGT Bk

Published on Wed, Jul 23, 2008 at 11:23 | Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Thu, Jul 24, 2008 at 14:14

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Hans Goetti, CIO, LGT Bank - Liechtenstein

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Hans Goetti , CIO, LGT Bank - Liechtenstein sees more decline in crude and large part of the move was on investment demand. He said that crude may lower on likely regulation change and lower risk premium. He also sees a bounceback to 15000-15500 levels on Sensex fairly quickly.

Goetti believes that last week's lows in the US market is likely to be in place for several months. The problems in US financials will continue even though they may not have seen low.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Hans Goetti:

Q: Can you give a preliminary reaction from the political developments for our market because there's talk of things like banking reforms going ahead sooner or faster?

A: Banking reform is one of them and it's very important; but also the nuclear deal with the US which is much more likely to go through now which will benefit an array of companies who are engaged into that area. So overall it's a very positive change because it calms down the political domestic situation and looks like the current government will see how it turns in the end, say May 2009.

Q: How have you read the way the crude market has been moving and do you think a lot of institutional investors might start taking cash calls on an emerging market versus what's happened with crude or because of what's happened with crude?

A: A large part of the move we had in crude oil was due to the investment demand and the regulator or the commodity future trading formation is looking of possibly changing the rules. In other words we could see an increase in margin requirements and that is probably the main reason why crude oil pulls back from a USD 145 per barrel to currently down below USD 130 per barrel and another reason might be a reduction in the political risk premium of crude because you know that the US and Iran are engaged in talks. Although the US doesn't like to admit that it is in negotiations but the fact is that both sides are talking and that the tensions surrounding Iran have been greatly reduced. So we could see a further decline in the price of crude which of course will be very beneficial for emerging markets in particular and also India as well.

Q: How will the approach be, to this pull back rally we have seen? Do you think people will tactically play this for a bigger bounce or you are not seeing that much of a money interest coming back yet?

A: It depends on sentiment. In the US its always important how developed markets are doing because ultimately the emerging markets depends on the capital inflow from the developed economies and in the US you had this selling climax which normally are pretty important lows. The lows we have seen last week would be in place for several months and the very least we can expect here is a rebound and possibly a trading range especially with financials. I can't say with certainty that this has been the absolute lowing financials because the problems are still there to a large extent but the sentiment shift is important and if the sentiment shifts to the positive side, it will very bullish for the emerging markets and India as well.

Q: What's the call on India now?

A: The lows that we have seen in India are probably very important and will stay at place for a few months and we could see a pretty quick move up to 15,000-15,500 on the Sensex.